Mathis can wait 

Posted 2:29 PM by Sean
Baseball Prospectus names Bengie Molina the winner of their Golden Gun Award for the 2003 season, an honor that will surprise no one. By BA's calculations, Molina prevented more runs by throwing out base stealers than anyone in 2003 (and also won in 2002). That's to say nothing of the guys who were prevented from stealing through sheer reluctance to challenge Molina's arm in the first place, of course.

See what I mean? 

Posted 1:58 PM by Sean
From today's Borowitz Report:

STEINBRENNER BUYS FENWAY PARK

Homeless Red Sox Cry Foul

George Steinbrenner’s buying spree continued unabated today as the New York Yankees owner purchased Fenway Park, the legendary home of the arch-rival Boston Red Sox.

In buying Fenway out from under the Sox, Mr. Steinbrenner has left his Eastern Division rivals without a stadium for the first time in their history, jeopardizing the Red Sox’ bid for the American League pennant.

“It is hard to win a championship without pitching or hitting,” said David Hastings, a sports historian at the University of Minnesota. “But it is virtually impossible to win without a stadium.”

Red Sox owner John Henry, who spent most of the day scrambling to find a high school sandlot where his team might play the 2004 season, held an emotional press conference in Boston to denounce the big-spending Yankee honcho.

“Damn you, George Steinbrenner, damn you!” swore Mr. Henry, shaking his fist violently.

But Mr. Steinbrenner’s shopping day had barely begun, as he went on to outbid the Walt Disney Company for the legendary puppet characters, the Muppets.

While Mr. Steinbrenner did not indicate what role the Muppet characters might play in the Yankee organization, his aggressive purchase of Kermit, Miss Piggy et al reinforced the impression in baseball circles that the Yankee owner is willing to buy anything that is not nailed down.

Having assumed the $250 million contract of third baseman Alex Rodriguez, however, Mr. Steinbrenner acknowledged that he might have to economize by outsourcing second base to India.

In other baseball news, North Korea’s Kim Jung-Il revealed that he attempted to acquire A-Rod until he was told that A-Rod was not a piece of nuclear fuel.

Just a thought... 

Posted 12:51 PM by Sean
You know, the more I think about it, the more George Steinbrenner reminds me of Mr. Burns in the Simpsons episode where Homer joins a bowling team. Homer goes in to ask Mr. Burns to sponsor his team and Burns, who's been huffing ether, gladly agrees (he thinks Homer is the Pillsbury Doughboy). So Homer runs out of Burns's office with the check, and gleefully tells his co-workers, "If you want to ask Burns for a favor, now's the time! He's doped up, or dyin', or something!"

Hopefully someone will figure out a way to turn Steinbrenner's pathological need to spend and the Yankees' obvious hole at second base into a cash cow.

It's an epidemic! 

Posted 9:27 AM by Sean
Ye Gods, it's yet another Angels blog: The Pearly Gates. That's...uh...carry the two...four active Angels blogs!

Or maybe we'll carry 16 pitchers 

Posted 9:17 AM by Sean
The Orange County Register today is dismissive of the chances of a back-of-the-rotation controversy, saying that Ramon Ortiz is the odds-on favorite. I suspect that's how it will turn out, but I really doubt that the Angels will stick Sele in the bullpen without taking a hard look at him first.

Then again, the Register also says that "...if Sele and Shields are relievers, Derrick Turnbow might be looking at another season in Triple-A." Maybe so, but it probably won't be for the Angels. Turnbow is out of options; if he doesn't make the club out of spring training, he has to clear waivers before he can be returned to Salt Lake.

Throoooooooooow! Throwthrowthrowthrowthrooooooooooooooow! 

Posted 10:37 AM by Sean
The party line continues to be that the Angels are perfectly comfortable heading into spring training with six starters. Just to recap, they are: Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Ramon Ortiz, and Aaron Sele. Additionally, the Angels have Scot Shields, who's performed competently as a spot starter, in the bullpen, as well as a couple of minor-league pitchers who may or may not be ready for work with the big club.

It's a logjam. Or an armjam, anyway.

Realistically, Colon, Washburn, and Escobar are pretty close to guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Most of the stuff I've been reading assumes that Lackey is in, too, although a look at his numbers reveals a guy who's been almost exactly average over the last couple of years, albeit with flashes of dominance (and a permanent place in the hearts of Angels fans as the guy who pitched five good innings to start Game 7). Lackey's big advantage is that he's a youngster - 25 years old - and can be expected to improve for the next few years. So he's a good bet to be starter #4.

Neither Ortiz nor Sele is a safe bet to return to their glory days. Ortiz has had his ups and downs, will turn 31 before the season starts, and I get the sense that the Angels have grown just a little bit weary of waiting for him to fulfill his potential. After a pair of good seasons in 2001 and 2002, he had a subpar 2003. Then again, who didn't?

Sele, meanwhile, is three years older than Ortiz, and attempting to come back from an injury, to boot. I suspect that his days of sub-4.00 ERAs are done, but he's certainly wouldn't surprise anyone by being a capable fifth starter. He'll be making somewhere in the $8 million range in 2004, meaning that his contract is virtually untradable at this point. If he impresses in spring training, he'll likely get the slot in the rotation, and the Angels will attempt to deal Ortiz. If he doesn't, the Angels will either release him (bringing the amount they'll spend on starting pitchers not playing for them in 2004 to $20 million), or attempt to trade him while picking up some of his contract money. Either choice would be perilous - keeping Sele means keeping your fingers crossed that he doesn't get injured again, or just plain break down over the course of a season. Trading or releasing him means you end up paying for something you're not using. Fortunately, the presence of Shields as an emergency fifth starter should give the Angels the flexibility to use either Ortiz or Sele as their fifth starter, on the theory that even if they choose a dud and trade away the other, they still have a competent backup.

No matter how many times Stoneman says that all jobs are up for grabs, expect most eyes to be on Aaron Sele. Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow; the first spring training game is versus San Diego on March 5.

Okay, so not being a raving loon isn't one of his strong points... 

Posted 4:30 PM by Sean
Notice how I had it both ways the other day? I was "skeptical" that the A-Rod to New York deal would get done, but, just in case, I hedged my bets by mentioning George Steinbrenner's well-deserved reputation for acting like a rich shitheel.

So now, of course, Alex Rodriguez is going to be a Yankee. Any baseball blog you read today will have the relevant details, and I more or less agree with the majority of my blogging bretheren: yes, it's just another example of the Yankees using their unfair monetary advantage. Yes, said advantage is partially an accident of geography. Yes, there's nothing anyone can do about it, so let's shut up and play ball, already.

In terms of looking at the Yankees, Now with New Rodriguez Action (TM), the only analysis I've done is to take a look at what they've gained in terms of win shares above average. They'll be replacing Aaron Boone, who contributed 0.5 WSAA last year, with Rodriguez, who contributed 15.5. Since three win shares equals one win for the team, this tells us that, if Boone and Rodriguez performed the same in 2004 as they did in 2003, that's five big wins the Yankees have picked up.

However, the Yankees also dealt away Alfonso Soriano, who had 8.6 WSAA, and they've yet to announce who will replace him. If the Yankees field an "average" player at second this year, they'll lose all of those, reducing their net win gain to around two. Since they'll be paying A-Rod $16 million, dropping Soriano's $5.4 million salary, and adding an average second baseman's salary, those two wins would cost the Yankees approxmately $11 million American.

Realistically, the Yankees are unlikely to stand pat with their current options at second base, the most palatable of which would be Miguel Cairo, who's compiled a .269 batting average and a total of 19 home runs since debuting in 1996 (Soriano, of course, hit 38 home runs last year). They'll more than likely add a handful of win shares back into the equation with whomever they manage to acquire to fill that particular hole, meaning that, when all is said and done, they'll be somewhere around three to four wins better than they were before acquiring Rodridguez.

So, what does this mean for the Angels? Well, there are two ways of looking at this. One is that it makes a potential wild-card contender a fair bit stronger, which would hurt the Angels if they don't take the A.L. West crown. Fortunately, that's a load of hooey.

Before the trade, I think it's fair to say that the Yankees and Red Sox were pretty evenly matched going into 2004, and that the Angels, and possibly the A's, were right up there with them. Now, of course, the Yankees become the team to beat - but the Red Sox, thanks to the unbalanced schedule, will have to play them more than twice as often as the Angels. Boston plays New York nineteen times, to be exact, versus the nine games Anaheim will end up contesting. So, although the Angels will be at a disadvantage vis-a-vis New York, they're compensated by the fact that Boston's schedule becomes harder relative to Anaheim's. Since either New York or Boston was going to win the East anyway (barring divine intervention from the Canadian baseball gods), everyone outside the East gets a little help from the fact that the standings are more likely to end up with New York at 100 wins and Boston at 94, instead of, say, New York at 97 wins and Boston at 96. To illustrate the point more clearly, take it to an extreme - imagine the Yankees were so good they won all their games. The Angels would drop nine, sure, but so would everyone else - except the other Eastern Division teams, who would drop ten games in the loss column that would be "in play" for everyone else.

Meanwhile, the Angels, A's, and Mariners get to play the A-Rod-less Rangers nineteen times, which should, in the short term, mean a couple of extra wins, unless the Rangers can spend the money they're saving effectively enough to make up the difference between Rodriguez and Soriano (alternatively, of course, they could also get increased production from an admittedly young and talented core). However, given that the Rangers have agreed to pick up something like nine million dollars per year on Rodriguez's contract, and also given that, of the $16 million they're saving, $5.4 million will go to Soriano, and further given that part of the reason they made the deal was to cut payroll, their financial flexibility from this deal is probably somewhat less than the flexibility the Mariners got when Kaz Sasaki decided to head on back to Japan a couple of weeks ago (for some truly shocking numbers about the effect this deal has on the Yankees' and Rangers' payroll, see the invaluable Dugout Dollars blog).

So, in the end, I think this deal should change most people's minds from "The Yankees and Red Sox will slug it out for the East, with the loser probably getting the wild card," to "the Angels and A's will slug it out for the West, with the loser fighting Boston for the wild card." That's not to count out the Mariners, of course, who may be a decent dark horse - just an attempt to distill the conventional wisdom. Which - thank God - is scheduled for obsolescence as of the first pitch of the season, to be thrown on March 30 in Tokyo.