Well, that's interesting 

Posted 6:27 PM by Sean
ESPN is offering something new - "Stat Packs" in advance of each game, .pdf files that contain information on each team like hitting and pitching statistics, trivia, notes, etc. It's not as well put together as the media notes released by the individual clubs, but whaddaya want for nothin'? A rubber biscuit?

The Stat Packs are available at the ESPN scoreboard page.

Hearts and flowers 

Posted 3:38 PM by Sean
Jim Caple has some nice things to say about the Angels in general, and Guerrero in particular.

Ooooh, all that vegetable fiber has made them so clever! 

Posted 12:45 PM by Sean
Via ESPN:

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) had a 12-word statement engraved in an 8-by-8 inch brick -- the commemorative bricks were offered by the Padres as part of a permanent display surrounding the team's new $411 million stadium.

The message reads, "Break Open Your Cold Ones! Toast The Padres! Enjoy This Championship Organization!" The first letter of every word spells "BOYCOTT PETCO."

I envision throngs of Padres fans descending on Inexplicably Capitalized Kibble Merchant Park, only to turn back in horror as they realize the true meaning of the secret message encoded on one of the bricks. The Padres, PETCO, and indeed the entire pet industry are doubtless quaking in their sealskin boots.

Rassum-frassum! 

Posted 12:20 PM by Sean
Dammit, I just lost a fairly lengthy post about last night's game, just when I have no time to reconstruct it. So here's the dime version:

Lackey - excellent job getting that first strike; 21 of 24! The wheels came off in the sixth, possibly due to loss of velocity and/or command (fastball was around 88 mph by then). Layne blew a call at first, but isn't responsible for Chone Figgins' or Garret Anderson's bad defense. Anderson's throw was so far over Halter's head it was quoting Schopenhauer.

Ryan Franklin pitched beautifully. Hudson and Mulder must be thinking pretty hard about how the Angels had a hard time with that breaking ball.

Glaus is said to be returning to the lineup tonight. Assuming the Molina brothers continue to trade starts, we may see the Angels' regular lineup for the first time this season on Saturday.

The full version was much smarter. I promise.

Okay, now sit back down 

Posted 11:45 PM by Sean
...and now I don't feel so sorry for Chone Figgins anymore.

John Lackey, destiny and Ramon Ortiz would like to include you in a conference call 

Posted 5:10 PM by Sean
The beat goes on tonight, with John Lackey looking to redeem himself. It's pretty sad when you're worried about suffering in comparison to a guy because you can't match his 5.2 inning, 4 earned run start, but there it is - Lackey needs to pull a Ramon and show us that he can, in fact, be an average pitcher.

The usual suspects in the Mariners' lineup have had success against him in the past: Bret Boone, who's 8-for-18 against him lifetime, Edgar Martinez, who's 5-for-14, and...well, Randy Winn, who's 4-for-13. It's possible Winn will return to the two-spot tonight, as Olerud is 5 for 19 against him.

The Mariners, meanwhile, will give the ball to Ryan Franklin, who's 31 years old but only caught on as a full-time player in 2002. After spending most of his time as a slightly better than average reliever, he was converted into a starter last year and started 32 games for Seattle, compiling an impressive 3.57 ERA. The Mariners didn't give him much in the way of run support, though - they scored two or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 losses - and he became the only pitcher in the top 10 in ERA with a losing record.

Franklin proved tough to slap around last year, both in general and for the Angels specifically. He left before the sixth inning only once in his 32 starts in 2003, while his lifetime ERA against Anaheim is 2.59 in 59.0 innings. His principal weakness is the longball, however, and this is a team that can exploit that - Franklin gave up 34 homers in 2003, tied with our very own Jarrod Washburn for the league lead. If Eckstein and Erstad can set the table, the Angels may be able to do some serious damage with the middle of the lineup. Eckstein hasn't hit him well in the past - he's 2 for 26 - but Erstad is 6 for 15 against him, and Anderson 10 for 24.

Once past Franklin, the Angels will have the advantage of facing a fairly depleted Seattle bullpen. Shigetoshi Hasegawa went two innings last night, and Julio Mateo made relatively brief appearances both last night and Tuesday - either of them could pitch, I suppse, but it's more likely that Ron Villone or newcomer J.J. Putz (that's pronounced "Poots," by the way; he was recalled from Triple-A before last night's game) would be Bob Melvin's first resort, unless Mike Myers gets the call to pitch to a lefty. Kevin Jarvis seems to be on the brink of becoming a nonentity in that bullpen.

For his own part, Lackey has a history of pitching well to the Mariners himself, putting up a 3.22 ERA in 36.1 innings lifetime and a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings in 2003. His most recent start against Seattle, encouragingly enough, resulted in one of his two career complete game shutouts. That was on September 24, in Anaheim: 9.0 IP, 5 hits, no runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts. If Scioscia needs the bullpen this time, however, both Ben Weber and Kevin Gregg should be available for set-up duties, while Aaron Sele hasn't pitched since Friday. It's probably not likely that Scot Shields will be called upon, as he's thrown 36 pitches in the last two days, and I suspect that Frankie Rodriguez - who's thrown 39 in two days - will be used only in an emergency. It will be interesting to see how Scioscia uses Weber and Gregg - Weber's given up earned runs in each of his three appearances so far this year, including three in 0.2 innings on Monday, while Kevin Gregg has five scoreless innings under his belt, compiled in four appearances. I suspect we'll see Gregg against the heart of the Seattle lineup in the late innings, unless the Angels have a big lead and Weber or Lackey are cruising.

Recriminate THIS! 

Posted 12:52 PM by Sean
As a coda to the discussion of Garret Anderson's new contract, comes now Magglio Ordonez, seeking a five-year contract from the Chicago White Sox at $14 million per season. I don't intend to compare Anderson and Ordonez, because Ordonez is clearly the more valuable - he's younger, and just plain better, than Anderson. Is he $2 million a year better? Eh, maybe (and of course we have no idea what Ordonez will actually end up getting). But I still believe that part of the value of Anderson's contract is that it takes the issue off the table - who knows if Ordonez, or anyone else, for that matter - will be available during free agency?

That said, it's a good bet that there's at least one guy who will be available, and would you rather see that $2 million spent upgrading from Anderson to Ordonez, or as part of a package that upgrades from Eckstein to Garciaparra? You know, a couple million here, a couple million there, and pretty soon you're talking real money...

Update: Mike's Baseball Rants has an excellent discussion of why he thinks GA's not worth the money. As far as I can see, the divergence between his opinion and mine is that I weigh Anderson's more recent seasons more heavily than I weigh, say, 1995 and 1996.

Update! Part Deux!: Rob emails to rightly take me to task for beliving the Garciaparra hype. In fact, his home/road splits tell the story of a guy who's making a career out of banging doubles off the Green Monster. I stand by the larger point - the Angels are still going to have to make decisions at short and third, as well as finding a couple of pitchers, and dealing with Anderson now is one less ball in the air then - but Nomar? No thanks.

The world needs fourth starters, too 

Posted 11:58 AM by Sean
Thanks to MLB's Extra Innings package and ReplayTV, I've been fortunate enough to see all nine of the Angels' games this year despite living just slightly out of market. So it's with a fair bit of certainty that I say that last night's 6-5 victory over Seattle was easily the tensest set-to of this young season. And it produced a lot of stuff to talk about, so you might want to get a sandwich and a beer before reading any further.

It seems appropriate to start with Ramon Ortiz, who made a noticable improvement - how could he not - over his last start, a Good Friday scourging the likes of which had Mel Gibson muttering about international gross and points off the back end. Ortiz's final line - 5.2 innings pitched, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K - is nothing to holla back at, but, well...Ramon Ortiz went five and two-thirds! For a number four guy (well, number five, really), that's about what you shoot for - someone who will keep you in the game. Ortiz seemed a little bit calmer than he usually is, particularly in the first three or four innings, and was working noticably faster than usual. That's a good sign.

What Ortiz's start really exemplified, however, was the importance of the first-pitch strike. Let's talk some numbers for a minute: Ortiz faced 26 batters. Of those, he started 14 with a ball, and 12 with a strike.

Of the 14 batters he started with a ball: six made outs (43%). Three singled, three walked, and two doubled. That's a rate of 0.714 total bases per batter faced.

Of the 12 batters he started with a strike: nine made outs (75%). One singled, one doubled, and one homered. That's a rate of 0.583 total bases per batter faced.

One of the things Ortiz seems to need help with is the ability to recognize and adapt to an opposing lineup's approach to him. The Mariners brought their patience hats to the plate last night - of those 26 hitters, only three swung at the first pitch. Of the 14 who took a first-pitch ball, only three swung at the next pitch, while five looked at strike one. And yet Ortiz still threw more balls than strikes on the first pitch. If Bud Black can make him see the importance of that first-pitch strike, Ortiz may have a chance to contribute to this team. I am not, however, hopeful.

Bob Melvin shook up his lineup a little for the game - well, as much as you can shake up a lineup when you're using your sixth in eight games - putting John Olerud in the two-spot to take advantage of his lifetime .306 batting average against Ortiz, and flipping Boone and Martinez to maximize the chances of Boone hitting with men on. Boone did eventually homer with Martinez on, but otherwise Ortiz limited the damage done by Boone, getting him to line out to Kennedy in the first and fly out to Salmon in the fifth.

For Scioscia's part, he rested Glaus and Molina again, and again moved Guerrero to DH. Unfortunately, for the second straight night Guerrero had to run the bases on close plays, and his knee is clearly bothering him. The Times and the Register attribute, respectively, the following two bits of wisdom to Scioscia this morning:

Manager Mike Scioscia said Guerrero could heal more quickly if the Angels gave him several days off, but they consider his bat too valuable to take out of their lineup. Guerrero probably will continue to serve as the designated hitter for the next few games.

* * *

But Scioscia didn't want to rush him. Scioscia said Molina could play back-to-back games this weekend in Oakland.

"I think he understands the nature of hamstring injuries," Scioscia said. "I think he understands the fact that you'd like to wait a day or two longer than you think they're ready.

"It's the same thing with Troy Glaus. He's feeling a lot better but he's not at the point where he feels comfortable enough to go out there and do the things that he would need to do to play. He made a lot of improvement from (Tuesday)."

Uhhhhhhmmmmmm....

In any event, Chone Figgins ran for Guerrero in the bottom of the ninth, and more or less gave the finger to the "stolen bases are overrated" crowd by winning the game with his speed. That sixth run was scored on a walk, two stolen bases, and a sac fly, and, though I feel bad for Figgins, who would obviously like a start or two, that's a pretty sweet arrow to have in your quiver.

Generally speaking, the offense looked much better against Freddy Garcia, although I'm still debating whether that was an improvement in the offense or a worse outing by Garcia. I'm leaning towards the latter, to tell the truth - he seemed to be putting the ball across the plate a lot more tonight, rather than throwing those breaking pitches off the outside corner that flummoxed the Angels last week. This is a lineup that will kill you if you don't bring your good stuff, though, and the Angels did a great job of taking the advantage Garcia was offering them. It was nice to see Tim Salmon finally have his first good night of the year, hitting three balls with authority. After starting the season 1-for-20, he's gone 7 for his last 14, including three doubles and a home run in his last three games. Of course, he very nearly wasted that performance by popping up with the bases loaded and nobody out - on the first pitch, after Hasegawa had just thrown four straight balls to Guillen - but all's well that ends well. To be honest, I think we've barely scratched the surface of what this lineup can do - Scioscia still hasn't been able to put his "everyday" lineup in effect - and I don't think 900+ runs is out of the question this year, although it'll be a chore considering they'll be facing Oakland 19 times.

As for Percival's blown save...well, he'll do that sometimes. He's always had a tendency to put guys on base, but usually wriggles out of it with the save. To be honest, the Angels were pretty lucky to hold the Mariners to a tie in the top of the ninth, just as the Mariners were pretty lucky to stop that bases-loaded, no-out situation in the seventh. But the handwriting's on the wall for Percival, who's in his last year with the Angels, and I'm not going to sweat this one until I see a couple more like it.

Ramon Ortiz, your destiny is calling 

Posted 5:37 PM by Sean
Well, there's just no avoiding it. In a few hours, I'm going to have to sit down - probably with my good friend, Jim Beam - and watch Ramon Ortiz pitch against Freddy Garcia.

You'll remember that Garcia more or less dominated the Angels for seven innings last week, holding the halos scoreless on four hits while striking out seven, and it was only by the grace of God and Bob Melvin's desire to keep Garcia's pitch count down that they finally got to go do that voodoo that they do so well in the ninth. Garcia has historically had the Angels all figured out - a 2.24 ERA in 17 career starts, and a 1.17 ERA against them in 2003 - though in fact Ortiz has actually been decent against the Mariners, too (3.39 ERA in 12 starts for his career, 4.01 ERA against them in 2003 - curiously, all four of his 2003 starts came against Jamie Moyer). Realistically, the Angels will be in good shape if they can keep this one close until the late innings. Seattle's bullpen has been notso-hotso so far, posting a 6.95 ERA in 22 innings of work. The guy we want to see in particular is Kevin Jarvis, who's appeared three times and put his first batter on base on each occasion. Everyone in the Seattle bullpen is probably available to work tonight, particularly Jarvis and Shigetoshi Hasegawa, neither of whom have pitched since Sunday (nor has Eddie Guardado, for that matter, but he's unlikely to be used except as a closer).

It's hard to know exactly how thin the ice under Ortiz is as far as Scioscia is concerned. It seems obvious to me that Ortiz, who's thirty years old and is in his sixth major league season, has a tendency to go to pieces on the mound that he's just not going to shake. But it seemed equally obvious to me that Sele had beaten him out for the fifth starter position in the spring, so Scioscia and Bud Black are obviously looking at a different data set than I am. Tonight, Ortiz will absolutely have to go after Ichiro and Winn at the top of the order, neither of whom have been especially successful against him the past, because Bret Boone just kills Ortiz, and Ortiz gives up a ton of home runs. If Ortiz can limit the damage by working to Boone with the bases empty, that'll go a long way towards keeping the Angels in this one. If he's erratic at the top of the lineup, though, me and Jim Beam are gonna get real cozy.

Trading in hemoglobin shares to rise sharply 

Posted 11:36 AM by Sean
Also reported on ESPN last night, and at the Times, is the fact that Brendan Donnelly has been cleared to resume light exercises. If all goes well, he should begin more strenuous exercise in a week.

Meanwhile, both Troy Glaus and Vlad Guerrero are banged up a little; Glaus sat out his second straight game with a "tweaked" hamstring, whatever the hell that means, and Guerrero DH'ed last night because of a sore knee. The latter was pretty evident after the game; ESPN showed a shot of him trotting onto the field to slap hands with his teammates, and he was clearly favoring his right leg. Guerrero scored from first on a Jose Guillen double and looked like he was running as flat-out as he could, so I suspect he probably will spend a good deal of time in the trainer's room today making sure he didn't really hurt himself, but he was all smiles after the game, despite looking like the love child of Buckwheat and Joe Cocker (yeah, I know: they're just dating).

Meanwhile, Bengie Molina made his long-awaited return last night. Having apparently lost interest in running the bases aggressively, Molina deposited a two-run shot in the bullpen and trotted around them instead. After a few innings of anemic offense and unsteady pitching, the Angels bounced back from a 4-0 deficit with a barrage of hits to score seven unanswered runs. Frankie Rodriguez pitched brilliantly in relief, identifying a spot low and just on the outside of the strike zone that was being called a strike by home plate umpire Jerry Meals, and returning to it again and again to get ahead of hitters. Troy Percival got his second save in as many appearances, Vlad Guerrero hit another home run, and Jose Guillen pitched in with that double down the third-base line to score the Angels' fifth and sixth runs, taking third on the throw to set up his own run scored when Tim Salmon grounded to third.

But what I really want to do right now is eat a little crow. And I mean a little, because it's still so early. However, the incredibly early, laughably-small-sample-size returns on Darin Erstad are looking more encouraging these days, and not just because he was three-for-three last night (and was on base all four times he came to the plate). If you'll recall, a few days ago I mentioned that Erstad was, unlike Salmon, hitting the ball hard quite a bit. That's still true, and Erstad had a terrific at-bat the other day against Texas's Colby Lewis, in which he eventually doubled. After Anderson's 0-for-4 performance last night, Erstad is now the only Angel to have a hit in every game. Granted, before last night it was exactly one hit in every game, making his average pretty crappy - but if he continues to make good contact the hits are going to start to fall. He still has too many strikeouts - eight, so far - and not enough walks - two - but six of his eight K's were in the first four games, and both of his walks were in the most recent two games. Like I said, it's still too early to tell what's going on - all I can say is that it bears watching. This will not, however, stop me from claiming credit for being the first on the story if Erstad has a good year.

Details, details... 

Posted 10:42 AM by Sean
ESPN reported during last night's broadcast of the Angels-Mariners game that the extension signed by the Tustin Rhino - and yes, I'm going to keep pushing that until it shows up in the Baseball Encyclopedia - is worth $48 million over four years. The Times has details here. The contract includes a $3 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2005, $10 million in 2006, $11 million in 2007, and $12 million in 2008. You'll note, of course, that this adds up to $45 million; the extra $3 million is the buyout on his contract if the club declines to exercise their option for 2009. If they do pick Anderson up for the extra year, it'll cost them a cool $14 million, which, to be fair, will probably be the cost of two breakfast taquitos and a Coke at 7-Eleven by then. Not that I'd know; the indiscriminate halohagiography at this site is fueled by the exclusive breakfast of Purgatory Online, coffee and Jolly Ranchers.

Anyway, the initial reaction to the Anderson signing seems to be mutedly negative. Rob at 6-4-2 thinks GA rooked Arte Moreno, a proposition I have some trouble believing; Richard at the Pearly Gates says that it's more than he'd give Anderson (yeah, me too - if I gave GA $12 million a year I'd probably have to sell the other Porsche), but concedes that it's probably around market value, and essentially the same position is taken at Chronicles of the Lads.

The U.S.S. Mariner is more sharply critical, making comparisons between Moreno and noted Texas dimwit Tom Hicks. And no doubt we can look forward to a good deal of pooh-poohing from ESPN's Rob Neyer, though in fact he may want to wipe off his chin first.

Me? I think this is actually a pretty good deal. Looking at the yearly numbers, we have a base salary of $9 million next year, with a $1 million increase per year. The signing bonus and the buyout aren't chump change, but they'd probably be the same for any decent free-agent outfielder the Angels would sign in Anderson's place. In particular, given the pace of payroll expansion, that $12 million in 2008 is probably going to be the functional equivalent of 2005's $9 million. Statistically speaking, Anderson may be expected to decline starting either this year or next year, but that's something of an open question. U.S.S. Mariner, for example, argues:

However, he's been overrated for most of his career, and sports a not-star-like .328 career on base percentage. As recently as 2001, he was getting on base just 31 percent of the time, and that isn't an acceptable number for anyone but a middle of the diamond player with terrific defensive abilities, and even then, you don't pay those types a lot of money.

Ah, but how convenient, that "most of his career" and "as recently as 2001" language, as if the rest - the most recent - of the evidence was inconsequential. Anderson's batting average and on-base percentage have actually improved every year since 2000; in 2002 and 2003 his OPS was 130 and 137% of the league average, respectively. It's true that he's improved from "good" to "outstanding," but the improvement is no illusion, and certainly one could argue that his on-base numbers have historically been depressed because, after all, his job isn't to set the table - it's to drive guys in. Argue with that philosophy all you want, but Scioscia's at the helm, and he seems to know what he's doing. With Jose Guillen and a resurgent Troy Glaus hitting behind him, we'll likely see Anderson's OBP remain at levels comparable to the last two years, in which he bested the league average AND drove in well over 100 runs.

So what does this mean for the future? Is there any guarantee that Anderson will remain as productive as he currently is for the next four years? Well, what am I, Kreskin? Of course it's a gamble - but I think it's a good one. Consider the alternatives: the Angels' farm system, though stocked with infielders and (to a lesser extent) pitchers, lacks many outfield prospects. Nick Gorneault may reasonably be expected to contend for a spot next year, but that's about it - and even if he does, Jose Guillen's contract expires after 2005, so the Angels would need to either re-sign Guillen or pursue a free agent anyway. Is there a free agent comparable to Anderson coming onto the market this winter? Honestly, I don't know - if you've got a candidate, email me - but it also seems likely that sealing up the outfield now will allow Moreno and Stoneman to focus on some other pressing issues in the off-season - namely, deciding Troy Glaus, Jarrod Washburn, and David Eckstein's fates.

Waiting in the wings 

Posted 4:17 PM by Sean
ESPN's Down on the Farm profiles Casey Kotchman today. Kotchman is currently at Double-A Arkansas, along with most of the organization's other young studs. The Travs are currently 4-1, after losing their first game last night in fourteen innings. The Angels' Triple-A team in Salt Lake, meanwhile, is also 4-1.

Anderson News Flash! Uh, make that "Anderson News Cash!" 

Posted 2:08 PM by Sean
Garret Anderson signed a four-year contract extension today, with a club option for a fifth year. The Angels never disclose the financial terms of contracts, but we can safely assume it's in the $11-$13 million per year range.

Arte Moreno, you've said all along that signing Anderson was a priority, and now you've gone and done it. Congratulations, sir, and thank you.

Molina News Flash! Uh, make that "Molina News Plod!" 

Posted 12:11 PM by Sean
From our friend at the Times:

Catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined because of a slight strain of his left hamstring, took batting practice, ran the bases aggressively and was also put through some situational base-running drills before the game. Scioscia said as long as Molina recovered from the workout sufficiently, he would start tonight.

I just don't know...I'd like to believe it, but I've been burned so many times before...

Sean will attempt to type aggressively today, and could return to action as soon as [tomorrow's date] 

Posted 10:20 AM by Sean
The Times is seemingly asleep at the switch on the Bengie Molina situation.

Thursday:

"I'm here to play every day," said Bengie, on course to return for this weekend's series in Texas. "I don't care how good Jose is feeling. If they don't think I can play every day, that's a decision they have to make."

Saturday:

Angel catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined by a slight strain of his left hamstring, will attempt to run the bases aggressively before tonight's game. If he gets through the workout with no setbacks, he could start Sunday against the Rangers.

Yesterday:

Bengie Molina, sidelined by a slight strain of his left hamstring, ran vigorously in the outfield before Saturday night's game, and if the Angel catcher is able to run the bases aggressively today, he will probably make his 2004 debut Monday night against the Rangers.

And today:

Catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined by a strain of his left hamstring, ran in the outfield again. Scioscia said Molina would try to run the bases aggressively tonight, and if he passes that test, he could play Tuesday night at home.

It doesn't bother me so much that the Angels keep pushing Molina's return date back. What bugs me is that the Times hasn't even bothered to comment on the situation, or explain why what they've reported hasn't resulted in the expected outcome. Why even waste the ink at this point? How about "Bengie Molina may or may not run the bases aggressively at some point, and will be back when he's back, okay?" Mike DiGiovanna could program it in as a macro, just like I've got one that spits out "threw 2.2 ineffective innings in which he surrendered nine hits and seven earned runs, leading to renewed speculation that the Angels are keeping him in the rotation because of certain incriminating Polaroids in his possession" whenever I type the words "Ramon Ortiz."