Here Endeth the Lesson 

Posted 3:44 PM by Sean
Purgatory Online has taken hiatuses before, and I've said that I generally feel like there's not much to blog about in the offseason. Playing hot stove GM never really pushed my buttons.

This, however, is not a hiatus.

This, my friends, is The End, as in Jim Morrison's sole and bestest buddy. After three years and just north of 700 posts, I think I'm done doing this. There's no one reason why - I'm certainly going to follow the Angels' progress just as closely as I always have - but several things have made keeping Purgatory Online going either superfluous or impractical. For one thing, my life is about to take a fairly radical turn as I head to law school in the fall, a 36-year-old matriculant. This will necessitate a move, possibly to the East Coast, where I'd need to stay up until 1:00 am to watch a large proportion of games. And that Extra Innings package is going to start to look a little spendy when my income drops to zero.

For another, the Halosphere looks a lot different today than it did when I started this thing. As in, it exists. Part of the reason I started writing was out of sheer sectarian obstinacy - I got tired of looking at the blogrolls on baseball sites and seeing twenty-seven Mariners blogs (remember when the Mariners were good?) and no Angels blogs. These days, though, every one of those guys and gals on the sidebar is doing great work providing news, info, and discussion on the Angels. I'm proud to have been a part of that community, and will continue to be so as a commenter from time to time.

I'll also be maintaining the Brief History of the Halosphere, so those of you with links to it can feel free to leave them unchanged. I'll also check my email at purgatoryonline@yahoo.com from time to time, so if you have any questions feel free to drop me a line.

Over the past three years, I've had a chance to follow and write about a team that, seemingly miraculously, has turned themselves from jinx-plagued doormats to a team that no one would leave out of a discussion of playoff predictions or possible free-agent destinations. I'll never forget it. Here's to lighting up the halo a bunch more times in 2006, and every season after that.

Good night, everybody.

Things start popping 

Posted 10:46 AM by Sean
ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox have traded shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Braves for minor-league 3B prospect Andy Marte, leaving the Bostons in need of a shortstop. Previous rumors have had the Angels in discussion with the Red Sox to trade Orlando Cabrera as part of a package that would net Manny Ramirez; this may be a prelude to a blockbuster.

Noted 

Posted 9:58 AM by Sean
Dunno if any of the rest of the Halosphere has caught this - I don't remember seeing it via Bloglines, and the rest of you without an rss feed need to get one, dammit - but check out this story about Darin Erstad, a Port-A-Potty, and a near-asskicking avoided by beers and burgers.

Congratulations to the Chicago White Sox 

Posted 11:06 PM by Sean
Well, after six and a half months and 172 games, the doomsayers finally got one right.

My initial reaction is, of course, disappointment. Not disappointment in losing, exactly, but in playing so poorly in a series that was, when you get down to it, winnable. That's not to take anything away from the White Sox - they came through when it counted and proved themselves the better team - but after that first game the Angels just looked terrible, particularly at the plate. Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero are in serious danger of being labeled postseason nonentities, and for good reason. A team that never really had much offensive punch during the regular season saw it disappear entirely in the ALCS.

There were, of course, good things about this year - a second straight Western Division championship and sending the Yankees home in the ALDS, to name two. There are a lot of teams out there that would've loved to accomplish those things. I note here in passing that, since two-tiered playoffs began in 1995, the Angels have won four postseason series. The Mariners have won two. The Rangers and A's have won none.

There will be more to say in the next few days, but for now let's just congratulate the White Sox. For all the poor officiating - and honestly, at times it was simply gruesome - there's really no reasonable way to claim the Angels should have won this thing. I wish the Chicago club the best of luck in the World Series, and I hope that whichever team comes out of the NL gives them a better series than the Angels did.

The road to the threepeat starts in four months.

Back to what matters 

Posted 11:56 AM by Sean
Enough of this bullshit. Let's be clear: if you are seriously thinking of going to tonight's game to throw things at an umpire, or threaten him, or are obsessed enough to vow revenge, then you are functionally retarded and need to quit worrying about a damn game and find the proper pharmaceuticals. Holler and make signs if you want - I mean, I still think that's a waste of time, but whatever floats your boat - but anything beyond that and I hope you go to jail. The Angels have a pennant to win, and the last thing they need is for this nonsense to interfere with how they go about doing it even more than it already has. Let me put it another way: if you were a ballplayer, which would you rather have: 45,000 fans cheering you on in a game that's being played right now, or 45,000 fans booing an umpire for a terrible call in a game that's already over?

Let's look at Jon Garland.

vLHB - .276/.314/.453, 464 BF, 2.02 BB9, 4.04 K9, 9.46 H9
vRHB - .234/.281/.336, 381 BF, 1.68 BB9, 4.95 K9, 7.75 H9

Garland doesn't walk many batters, which is a boon to the Angels since they don't take many. Instead, he relies on a sinker that induces groundball outs, producing a 1.26 G/F ratio versus lefties and a 1.59 ratio versus righties. The Angels may also have something of an advantage in that Garland hasn't pitched since October 1. Sinkerball pitchers are often said to be more effective when they're a little tired; extra energy on the ball tends to keep it up in the zone a little longer. Frankly, I'm not at all convinced this is so, but I'm sure we'll hear it a few times as the game goes on.

With the splits clearly favoring lefties, we can expect to see Steve Finley back in center and Chone Figgins at third. I would also not be at all surprised to see Casey Kotchman DHing tonight, leaving Juan Rivera on the bench for a second straight game. Although I am convinced that Rivera is now an everyday player in Scioscia's eyes, those splits are very tempting. I'd put the odds of a Kotchman sighting at about 40%.

The last time the Angels faced Garland, Guerrero DHed and DaVanon played right field. That's an...unlikely alignment tonight. On that occasion (September 10), both Anderson and Finley went deep off Garland, and the Angels shanked him for seven earned runs in six innings.

Let's get this out of the way 

Posted 9:13 AM by Sean
Mark Buehrle pitched very well last night, and it's entirely possible that the White Sox would have won even without the benefit of Doug Eddings giving A.J. Pierzynski first base on a blown call. Of course, it would've been nice to find out, but that's just not how it went down.

As anyone who's interested knows by now, Eddings incontravertably blew the call in terms of whether Escobar's third strike was caught or not. The replays show it in the webbing of Josh Paul's glove; there's no real way to look at those pictures and see anything different. In real time, of course, it's not an easy call to make, especially from behind the catcher, so if it was simply that Eddings missed the call, that would be unpleasant but understandable. The truly shameful bit is that Eddings clearly made the fist-pump motion he'd been using all night to signal an out, then claimed that he was merely signaling a strike. Chronicles of the Lads has already done the work on this, demonstrating that Eddings had repeatedly made that same motion to indicate an out, while never making it on third strikes in the dirt.

Should Josh Paul have tagged Pierzynski, just to be sure? Obviously, yes. It can't hurt, right? But when you know you've caught the ball, and you see your teammates start trotting off the field because the umpire has signaled the batter out, at some point you're entitled to assume the umpire isn't, you know, kidding.

But here's the thing: it's over. The deed is done, the game is lost, and there's no functional difference whatsoever between being tied at one game apiece because of a blown call and being tied at one game apiece because the Angels got blown out. After watching the last couple of games, I don't think the White Sox have a whole lot to celebrate, but the Angels have every right to be proud of coming in and very nearly winning two games on the road after their intensely grueling travel schedule, losing their ace pitcher, and sending a guy with step throat to the mound during Game 2.

I was also very impressed with Scioscia during the postgame press conference. Moments after losing a game like that, he said exactly the right things in a very measured manner. He made it clear he disagreed with the call, but also made it clear that the Angels simply didn't play well enough to absorb that kind of thing, which is what championship teams do. He took responsibility in a way that is the hallmark of this team. There won't be any excuses or whining in the clubhouse, because guys like Scioscia and Erstad have spent years establishing a culture that says that you don't get too high or too low, and when you take a tough loss you turn the page. That's why a guy like Jose Guillen never fit in with them, and it's why they'll play Game 3 without any carryover from this.

In the end, the White Sox aren't going to win a seven-game series because of one blown call. Both clubs need three more wins, and, from what I've seen during the season and in the last couple of games, the Angels are simply the better team. They'll have every opportunity to prove it starting tomorrow.

Pressing the advantage 

Posted 4:00 PM by Sean
The Angels used good pitching, (mostly) sharp defense, timely hitting, perceptive managing, and a couple of White Sox miscues to steal Game 1 in Chicago last night, a game that was perhaps more important that the usual first game of a best-of-seven series. The Sox needed it to take control and pounce on the Angels' decimated pitching staff, while the Angels needed it as a hedge against what might happen if Kevin Gregg or Jarrod Washburn barfed up Game 2 (possibly literally, in the latter case).

Fortunately, the boys managed to pull it out, leaving them with one more to go before that much-needed off day. The Angels now have "home field advantage," but of course that means next to nothing without a win tonight, since the Sox could get it right back again by winning just one game in Anaheim. Going back to California up 2-0, on the other hand...well, that's a serious advantage, right there, and that should be all the motivation they need tonight. I seriously doubt anyone is thinking, even privately, that a split of the first two games puts them in charge of this series.

Tonight's game, like last night's, will hinge quite a bit on how much the Angels are able to extract from their starting pitcher, the still-wobbly Jarrod Washburn. Although Washburn's been eating solid food again for a couple of days now, anyone who's had strep throat (and that's pretty much everyone, right?) knows that recuperation takes a few days. Both Washburn's command and velocity will be under the microscope, and it shouldn't take too long to see what he's got.

With Scot Shields going two innings last night, Kelvim Escobar would seem to be the logical guy to turn to if Washburn makes it past the fifth and the score is close. I'd also not be surprised by a Brendan Donnelly sighting, even though I'm sure at this point that Scioscia and Black have little confidence in him, simply because there may be no alternative.

The White Sox, meanwhile, send up Mark Buehrle. Buehrle took something of a back seat to Contreras down the stretch, but for much of the season was Chicago's ace. The Angels have seen him three times this year already, with varying success - one earned run in nine innings on May 24, three earned runs in 8.1 innings on May 30, and five earned runs in six innings on September 9. Washburn came within one day of pitching for the Angels on all three of those occasions, facing the White Sox on May 25, May 30, and September 9. On the two occasions they matched up against each other they performed fairly similarly, with a slight advantage to Buehrle.

Buehrle's splits:
vLHB - .271/.290/.396, 215 PA, 0.70 BB9, 6.10 K9, 9.75 H9
vRHB - .260/.296/.375, 756 PA, 1.75 BB9, 5.55 K9, 8.95 H9

At first glance, Buehrle appears to be one of those lefties who actually fare worse against left-handed hitters, albeit only slightly. But, looking at those plate appearance numbers, it's clear something else is going on here. That's too many appearances for the numbers to be a sample size artifact - at least as a first explanation - but the huge difference between left-handed plate appearances and right-handed plate appearances does imply to me that selection bias is playing a big role in the numbers. In other words, managers are sending only their best lefties to the plate against him, so his numbers versus LHB are worse than they would be if he faced average hitters. Thus, there is no potential advantage to be gained by stocking the lineup with lefties tonight; that PA number tells us that the normal lineup versus left-handed pitchers should obtain. To wit:

Figgins - CF
Cabrera - SS
Guerrero - RF
Anderson - LF/DH
Molina - C
Erstad - 1B
Rivera - DH/LF
Quinlan - 3B
Kennedy - 2B

Rivera and Erstad could trade places, but the above is more or less how Scioscia sent them out there when the Angels faced Buehrle a month ago (Sorensen actually started at second in that game). It's also possible, I suppose, that Izturis could play third, since Washburn has evolved into a groundball pitcher and Izturis's defense is perceived as better than Quinlan's, but I doubt it.

As usual, the Angels will need to play excellent defense and execute well on offense to win this game. If they can fight off exhaustion for one more night, they'll have a shot.

This I cannot resist 

Posted 10:35 AM by Sean
So the Angels and White Sox coaching staffs debuted some new outerwear last night, wool and leather jackets that recall my favorite Angels jacket of all time, the blue wool body/gray sleeve number with red lettering they wore in the mid-90's. At $200 it's a little steep, and those buff-colored sleeves take some getting used to, but I suspect one is in my future at some point.

I knew he'd be great even in the minors 

Posted 10:02 AM by Sean
This is the funniest thing The Onion has done in years:

Antonio Alfonseca Once Again Leads Major-League Relievers In Fingers
October 6, 2005 Onion Sports
MIAMI—Florida Marlins pitcher Antonio Alfonseca dominated the MLB in
appendages for the ninth straight year, finishing the 2005 season with a
league-leading 12 fingers. Alfonseca, who made his debut with the Marlins in
1997 and wasted no time making this particular statistical category his own, led
the NL for almost the entire season, only falling into a close second during an
unusual two-week period in mid-August. Alfonseca's performance will trigger a $1
million bonus, as the Marlins signed him to an incentive-laden, oft-criticized,
finger-enumeration-based contract. "Antonio has been through a lot this season,
including some elbow problems and a trip to the DL," manager Jack McKeon said.
"But in the end, he just went out there and had a lot of fingers." There was
once again a tie for second place behind Alfonseca, with 214 pitchers amassing
10 fingers each, followed by Bob Wickman, who finished last with 9.7.

"But in the end, he just went out there and had a lot of fingers." I am slain.

Stupid and incompetent - an irresistable mix 

Posted 9:47 AM by Sean
In possibly the most boring prank of all time, a pair of Chicago radio guys attempted to wake up the Angels by knocking on their hotel room doors yesterday afternoon. Not only were they arrested and jailed for their trouble, it looks like they were knocking on the wrong doors, too.

Fortunately, the White Sox executed just about as well as they did.

Wait, there's a National League team in L.A. too? 

Posted 9:08 AM by Sean
Kevin Arnovitz chronicles the rise of the Angels as "Southern California's fair-haired franchise."

Pregame press conference notes 

Posted 5:10 PM by Sean
The Angels portion of today's pregame press conference just ended; Scioscia and Washburn took questions.

• According to Scioscia, the team got into the hotel at about 6:30 this morning.
• Jarrod Washburn is "likely to start" tomorrow; if he can't, Kevin Gregg will get the call.
• Colon won't be available for the ALCS. Esteban Yan has been added to the roster.
• Washburn looked wan and has clearly not fully recovered. He says that he hasn't picked up a baseball since Friday and had to watch Games 4 and 5 in a "quarantine room" by himself. When asked how long he'd be out if this had hit him in May instead of October, his response was "probably longer than I'm taking."

And again 

Posted 3:14 PM by Sean
Disposing of the Yankees was nice, but it's over. Thanks to Saturday's rainout and the kiddie-fiddlers at FOX, the Angels will play in Chicago tonight, travel and pitching disarray be damned. Though I have not yet seen an updated ALCS roster for the Angels, the word is that the Angels are skeptical that Bartolo Colon's inflamed shoulder will allow him to pitch against the White Sox, and he may be done for the year. Paul Byrd will pitch tonight, John Lackey goes in Game 3, and Ervin Santana in Game 4 (if Colon and/or Washburn remain unavailable). Game 2?

Um...

Well, Washburn has strep throat, and probably won't be ready. Which means either Kevin Gregg or Kelvim Escobar out of the bullpen, or Joe Saunders, who was not on the ALDS roster. Fun times.

The flip side of the disarray is that if the Angels do manage to steal one in Chicago it puts them in a stronger position that it would otherwise, since they would be coming home starting Lackey in Game 3 against Jon Garland. But they have to, you know, win first.

Tonight's White Sox starter is Jose Contreras, who's managed to turn around a pretty mediocre season after the All-Star Break and put together a nice little run. His splits this year:

vLHB - .231/.319/.365, 445 PA, 4.11 BB9, 6.34 K9, 7.63 H9
vRHB - .233/.295/.379, 412 PA, 2.44 BB9, 7.22 K9, 7.95 H9

Not a whole lot to work with there as far as matchups go, so it's likely we'll see some version of the default lineup against righties - Finley in center, Figgins at third. Scioscia has shown a propensity to juggle Guerrero and Anderson a bit lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this considering GA's recent upswing:

Figgins - 3B
Cabrera - SS
Guerrero - RF
Anderson - LF
Molina - C
Erstad - 1B
Rivera - DH
Finley - CF
Kennedy - 2B

Defensively, probably the most important thing for Byrd will be getting the White Sox to hit the ball on the ground. Since the pitching is thin, he'll be looking to throw hittable pitches early in counts, thereby making use of the defense and going deeper into the game. Byrd's not exactly a strikeout pitcher to begin with, so this shouldn't represent much of a departure for him. His average pitches per inning is a relatively low 14.3 this year; if he can maintain that pace and get through seven innings, I'm sure the Angels would have no complaints.

Yes indeed 

Posted 11:49 PM by Sean
Tomorrow. Chicago.

The chicken littles keep on cheepin'. The Angels keep on not caring.

You either get it or you don't 

Posted 5:19 PM by Sean
Go Angels.

Molly update 

Posted 6:37 PM by Sean
The FOX drones - in between gnashing their teeth and rending their garments thinking about an ALCS devoid of Red Sox or Yankees - report that Bengie Molina looks likely to play tomorrow. Apparently he "could have played today, but would have been in a lot of pain." Yeah - same here.

The fires that purify 

Posted 12:49 PM by Sean
Today's game has been postponed by rain until tomorrow at 6:30 Eastern time, which gives me a little bit of a breather. I'm not sure I would've been able to concentrate enough to write an update today otherwise.

I'll take credit for calling last night's game "epic" before it occurred, but I had no idea. Just...no idea. I'm fairly sure I was more wrung out after Game 2 of the 2002 World Series, that amazing 11-10 battle that became Tim Salmon's apotheosis, but nothing else comes close. For a while, I thought I might actually be in purgatory; that the expiation of my sins would take the form of a never-ending playoff game in Yankee Stadium. Surely that game lasted as long as three ordinary games. Surely it should be worth at least two wins?

No such luck.

Still. A stunner. With everyone and their dead grandmother (outside the Halosphere) just assuming that Randy Johnson would make mincemeat out of them, the Angels announced that they just might have something to say about how this all goes down - and in the best way possible. Garret Anderson? Yeah, he showed up. Four for five. A home and a triple. Five RBI. And Figgins, who was starting to look like a postseason nonentity? Two clutch hits, and that unbelievable catch. That's twice Figgins has turned the tide against the Yankees with a great defensive play in as many days. It's the kind of play that's all or nothing; with runners on the corners going on contact, if that ball gets by Figgins at least two score, and who knows how many more after that.

I have to admit that last night also saw my darkest moment this year as an Angels fan. The fourth and fifth innings, in which the Yankees roared back to take the lead, had me literally throwing the remote, turning the television off in disgust, and going off to another room to calm down. It wasn't even the blown lead that got to me - it was the feeling of inevitability about it. The feeling, a few batters into the fourth, that the Yankees were going to come back no matter what. I suppose that's "mystique and aura" for you. But the Angels have always had the right answer for that - sure, they might come back. But then it's your turn to punch. Never stop fighting until the fighting is done.

And so the Angels will get two shots at closing this thing out - Game 4 against Chacon, then Game 5 back in Anaheim (if necessary, two words that should loosen the bowels of any Yankees fan). Jarrod Washburn remains the probable starter for tomorrow's game, though it's always possible that Colon will take the ball now that he's at normal rest.

There's no question in my mind that the postponement of today's game benefits the Angels. Both Shields and Escobar threw a lot of pitches last night, and probably would've been kept out of a game today. Though I've got a fair bit of confidence in Santana throwing long relief, it's always better to have your best weapons at the ready, and a day off should put them in shape to pitch Games 4 and 5. It also gives Bengie Molina an extra day to recover from the pitch he took to his elbow, which might have been a crucial blow to the Angels if it had broken something. Despite the contributions from everyone else at various times, Bengie has been the guy consistently carrying this team forward over the last three games. He'll be a free agent after this year, and this may well be his valedictory as an Angel. They need him, and hopefully his wing is mended enough to play by tomorrow.

There's also the fact that a day off gives the Angels a chance to recharge mentally, making themless less likely to suffer from a letdown effect. The Yankees know their backs are to the wall; there's no chance they're going to ease off for Game 4. But the Angels, playing less than 24 hours after an emotional win and not in danger of elimination, might have suffered a bit. An extra day's perspective allows them to remember that there are necks yet to be stepped upon, work yet to be done.

Just like yesterday, the baseball universe believes that the Angels won't win Game 4. But maybe the baseball universe didn't see last night's game. I did. And I believe.

Epic 

Posted 3:54 PM by Sean
Tonight's game has something of a momentous feel to it. October in Yankee Stadium, in the rain and the cold. Randy Johnson bringing his 98 mph heat against Paul Byrd, whose crafty-veteran status is solid. The Yankees know that a loss puts them up against elimination with a final game in Anaheim. The Angels know that Johnson is a guy who ends playoff hopes for a living. New Yorkers want vengeance for '02. Angels fans want vengeance for '95.

The most important question for the Angels, though, is how to get Chone Figgins going. Figgins had a lousy post-season last year, hitting and fielding poorly. While he's made some spectacular plays at third so far this year, that's simply not going to be enough. The Angels can make do without contributions from Anderson or Guerrero in any given game; we all know that they run hot and cold, and the atmosphere has nothing to do with it. At this point, though, we're starting to creep into the territory with Figgins where he's going to start provoking mutters about his ability to produce in the playoffs. Fair or not, that's the kind of thing that perpetuates itself.

Tonight would not seem particularly auspicious for Figgins; in addition to Johnson being just plain good, Figgins is significantly worse as a right-handed hitter. Nevertheless, despite the confluence of factors arrayed against him, he's going to have to find a way to block out the distractions and treat this game - and the rest of the playoff run - as if it were any other part of the season.

Suspected lineup:
Figgins - CF
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - LF
Guerrero - RF
Molina - C
Rivera - DH
Erstad - 1B
Quinlan - 3B
Kennedy - 2B

Backs to the wall 

Posted 11:13 AM by Sean
Last night's game was...oh, let's go with "frustrating."

Frustrating, because Colon couldn't close out the first or second innings with two out and nobody on. Frustrating, because the Angels never seemed to get anything going offensively. And frustrating, because, despite it all, this was a game lost by lousy luck.

Don't get me wrong - the Yankees had some quality at-bats in those first two innings; certainly they put together more than the Angels would see. But if Gary Sheffield doesn't luck into a dying quail, Colon gets out of it unscathed. And if Finley's ground-rule double hugs the round a little closer, Rivera easily scores from first instead of being forced to remain at third. Last night's game, in other words, could easily have been a 3-1 victory instead of a 4-2 defeat.

None of which matters in terms of last night's game - it's lost, forget it. But the fact that Colon and Shields were able to manhandle the Yankee lineup for most of the game should give Lackey some confidence headed into tonight's matchup, which becomes a must-win. As for the bats...well, there's nothing that can really be said about them other than that they'll have to do better. Erstad is going to have to put his big-game face on in particular.

This is a club that has flirted with disaster all year, only to pull things out when it mattered most. As a fan, having seen them do it time after time, how do you give up on them now?

Eleven or bust 

Posted 6:58 PM by Sean
As is my custom, the champagne is bought, and cooling in the fridge. The club hasn't let me down yet, and I don't expect them to start with the ALDS.

Nothing left but to do it, guys. Go get 'em.

Back to games that count 

Posted 2:29 PM by Sean
Although home-field advantage in a five-game series isn't all that big a deal, one of the dominoes that fell over when the Angels swept the Rangers was the ability to hit against Mike Mussina with Mussina on the road. You'll see what I mean in a minute.

But first, Mussina's left-right splits, which are actually pretty boring:

vLHB - .282/.334/.436, 394 PA, 2.60 BB9, 8.40 K9, 10.20 H9
v RHB - .286/.332/.437, 372 PA, 2.11 BB9, 5.82 K9, 9.74 H9

Those are remarkable only for their similarity; other than a slightly elevated strikeout rate against lefties, they're virtually identical. Mussina's a slight groundball pitcher against both lefties and righties as well.

However, consider those splits - which are season-long - when looking at these numbers:

Away - .308/.370/.458, 394 PA, 3.18 BB9, 7.90 K9, 11.19 H9
Night - .291/.336/.469, 577 PA, 2.22 BB9, 7.46 K9, 10.34 H9
After All-Star Break - .298/.353/.447, 288 PA, 2.71 BB9, 8.41 K9, 10.58 H9

Hmmmm...so Mussina seems to have been a fair bit worse on the road, a little bit worse at night, and a fair bit worse after the break (his August and September numbers are particularly suspect). All of which leads me to believe that the key to offensive production against him won't necessarily be the matchups, but rather individual hitters taking advantage of his mistakes.

Predicted lineup:

Figgins - 3B
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - DH
Guerrero - RF
Erstad - 1B
Molina - C
Finley - CF
Rivera - LF
Kennedy - 2B

Noted without comment 

Posted 1:28 PM by Sean
ESPN predictions:

Gammons - Angels in five.
Miller - Angels in four.
Crasnick - Angels in five.
Neel - Angels in five.
Neyer - Yankees in five.

Boo-hoo-hoo 

Posted 1:13 PM by Sean
The Yankees - Alex Rodriguez and Joe Torre, specifically - are reportedly miffed that Buck Showalter pulled Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira after two at-bats apiece in Sunday's game against the Angels, thus weakening the Rangers' chances of winning and handing the Angels home-field advantage of the ALDS.

These, of course, are the same Yankees who had a perfectly legitimate chance to get home-field by beating the Red Sox on Sunday, but nevertheless chose to start Jaret Wright and his 5.97 ERA over Mike Mussina so they'd have a rested starter available for Game 1. It's also the same Joe Torre who, immediately after clinching the AL East the day before, told the media he'd be resting his own starters on Sunday (Torre ended up starting them, but pulling them after two or three at-bats each).

Man, I thought Noo Yawkuhs were supposed to be all tough and shit. Apparently not.

Scientists report Halosphere shrinking; probably Bush's fault 

Posted 4:34 PM by Sean
Cindy Fluffykins hasn't published in over a month, so I'm thinking a revision to the History of the Halosphere is due soon.

Duly noted 

Posted 1:53 PM by Sean
The Yankees' win last night considerably lengthened the odds against Curt Schilling pitching in the ALDS any earlier than Game 3, meaning he'd get just one start if the Angels face the Red Sox. The only way the Red Sox can head into Sunday's game guaranteed of making the postseason without a one-game playoff would be if they were to win Friday and Saturday while the Indians lost Friday and Saturday. If that were the case, however, the Red Sox would be playing Sunday for the division crown. They could hold Schilling and start Arroyo on short rest (or get a spot start from someone), but would they?

Interestingly, though, that might set up a perverse incentive for the Red Sox - that is, they might actually be better off losing, depending on whether they'd rather play Chicago on the road or the Angels at home. My suspicion is that, right or wrong, the Angels are going to be regarded as the slightly more dangerous team, so maybe they'll figure that having Schilling available for Game 1 is worth going on the road to Chicago. Personally, I'd take my chances at home, even though there's no guarantee you win on Sunday even if you do start Schilling, who's not exactly been dominant this year.

I wish I wish I had a fish 

Posted 11:20 AM by Sean
You know what would be awesome?

I don't even know if it's technically possible, but if the Angels were to activate Tim Salmon for one last at-bat this weekend, that would be pretty amazing.

Just a thought.

Looking ahead 

Posted 1:45 PM by Sean
For your consideration, here are the remaining AL playoff contenders' scheduled starters for the rest of the season:

White Sox
Wednesday - Contreras
Thursday - Garcia
Friday - Buehrle
Saturday - Garland
Sunday - TBA - likely to be Orlando Hernandez if they've clinched, Brandon McCarthy or Contreras on short rest if they haven't.

Indians
Wednesday - Lee
Thursday - Sabathia
Friday - Millwood
Saturday - Westbrook
Sunday - TBA - either Elarton or Lee on short rest.

Yankees
Wednesday - Chacon
Thursday - Small
Friday - Wang
Saturday - Johnson
Sunday - Mussina

(heh, heh: "small wang johnson")

Red Sox
Wednesday - Arroyo
Thursday - Clement
Friday - Wells
Saturday - TBA, but probably Wakefield on short rest
Sunday - TBA, but probably Schilling on normal rest

Yesterday's double-header kind of mucked with the Red Sox rotation, but Wakefield's a knuckleballer and won't have a problem with short rest.

Both of the ALDS series start on Tuesday, October 4. Obviously, there are a lot of variables involved, but it would seem that the Angels will probably get one of the Wednesday starters on extra rest, one of the Thursday starters on regular rest, or one of the Friday starters on short rest. Of course, if the Red Sox clinch before Sunday, they probably hold Schilling for Game 1, so right now the best thing that can happen for the Angels is a Yankees-Red Sox dogfight to the bitter end.

Hometown boy makes good 

Posted 12:36 PM by Sean
So it turns out that Angels blogger and noted Morrissey apologist Reverend Halofan somehow wrangled his way into the party at the team hotel last night. Pictures are supposedly forthcoming, though a part of me suspects he's making the whole thing up just to distract us from the fact that he didn't run naked across the field, as promised.

Oh, and prior to that party, the Angels won the A.L. West for the second year in a row. For the second game in a row, they got some runs early and made them stand up with strong starting pitching, crisp defense, and a resurgent bullpen. The Angels are now 10-1 in their last 11 games, and have picked a pretty good time of year to get hot. Although the A's deserve credit for putting together yet another winning season in a year in which they were expected to be rebuilding rather than contending, the last couple of weeks have made it clear which was the better team.

This year, Mike Scioscia will have the twin luxuries of resting some of his everyday players and aligning his pitching rotation, luxuries that will probably not apply to any of the other AL playoff teams. At the moment, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Indians are all tied up, with the White Sox two games ahead. Since the last weekend of the season sees the White Sox in Cleveland and the Yankees in Boston, those clubs are going to have no choice but to use their horses heavily over the next few days.

Of course, this guarantees the Angels exactly nothing. It is an advantage, but in the end the Angels will still need the pitching and defense they've gotten all year, plus some stepped-up offense from the hopefully rejuvenated lineup.

There is, I suppose, a little bit of a quandary for the Angels at the moment, since they're just a game behind the Yankee-Red Sox-Indian troika; a strong finish could propel them into a situation in which they would have the home field advantage in the first round. A strong finish coupled with a White Sox collapse could even give the Angels the top seed. But I think having rested, focused players trumps home field advantage any day; I'd guess that, over the next five days, we'll probably see the starters make some appearances, but strictly on a five-and-fly basis or a pitch count in the 60's or 70's. Meanwhile, look for Zach Sorensen to play quit a bit, since reports are that he's being considered for the postseason roster in the pinch-runner/superutility role that Chone Figgins played in 2002.

One of one hundred sixty-two 

Posted 2:22 PM by Sean
Ness: Never stop! Never stop fighting 'til the fight is done.
Capone: What'd you say? What're you saying?
Ness: I said, never stop fighting 'til the fight is done.

-- The Untouchables

The fight's not done.

Toute le Halosphere seems to have exhaled en masse after last night's 4-3 victory, but a five game lead with six to play is not safe. Consider the momentum the A's would have if they managed to win the next three games; consider the Angels would need to take two out of three in Texas at that point to guarantee themselves a playoff spot. That goal is in front of the Angels now, right there in front of them, and it's never been more important for them to bear down. When the Angels slipped into second a month ago, it was time to loosen up. When Frankie flubbed that return throw and let the winning run score, it was time to lighten up. Now, however, is the time to focus on landing the next punch.

The target of tonight's haymaker is left-hander Joe Kennedy. Though his overall numbers are unimpressive, Kennedy spent the first half of the year pitching for Colorado, which isn't actually Hell but an amazing facsimile. Here are his splits after coming to Oakland:

vLHB - .220/.286/.320, 1.07 G/F, 1 HR, 56 PA, 3.38 BB/9, 7.43 K/9, 7.43 H/9
vRHB - .279/.350/.463, 1.12 G/F, 5 HR, 163 PA, 3.68 BB/9, 6.63 K/9, 10.06 H/9

Despite Steve Finley's new "Jack Frosty" persona, I think those numbers are enough to justify benching him today in favor of Robb Quinlan. Doing so also gives the Angels another left-handed bat off the bench in addition to Kochman, which could be important in the late innings, since lefties hit Kiko Calero and Keiichi Yabu at .310/.383/.493 and .294/.380/.412, respectively. My suggested lineup:

Figgins - CF
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - DH
Guerrero - RF
Rivera - LF
Erstad - 1B
Molina - C
Quinlan - 3B
Kennedy - 2B

No easing up, no victory laps - just solid, focused baseball to get win number 91.

Battle cry 

Posted 1:15 PM by Sean
The magic number is four. Any combination of Angels victories and/or A's losses totaling four over the next seven days gives the Angels the division. Angels go 4-3? Check. Angels go 2-5 and the A's 5-2? Check. Angels go 0-7 and A's go 3-4? Check.

Of course, considering that the two clubs go head-to-head over the next four games, every Angels fan out there is coming into this series with one thought: even a split's good enough. Just two games out of four and the division is won.

I am not interested in a split.

After bobbing around for nearly the entire season, the Angels finally seemed to put it together on this just-ended home stand, going 8-2 in the midst of comebacks, clutch hits, and bullpen performances the likes of which we thought gone for good. With no dominant team in the AL this year, the club that we've seen over the last 10 games is good enough to win the pennant, and I, for one, am not interested in shooting for .500 again; neither should the Angels be. In Oakland or in Anaheim, the Angels are the better team and ought to be thinking about proving it for good. Running out the clock may win football games, but there is work left to be done here, tonight and every night until that number hits zero.

And so we consider tonight's starter, Joe Blanton. Corky's splits:

vLHB - .231/.294/.357, 412 PA, 7 HR, 2.95 BB/9, 4.74 K/9, 7.78 H/9
vRHB - .246/.319/.440, 369 PA, 14 HR, 3.43 BB/9, 5.61 K/9, 8.31 H/9

It's not much to hang your hat on, but Blanton's a righty who has a tougher time with right-handed hitters, meaning that Juan Rivera - a right-handed hitter who hits right-handed pitchers well - should bear watching tonight. Blanton's got a fastball that normally tops out at around 93 mph with decent movement, and has a fairly good curve, an average slider, and an indifferent changeup. He's a rookie, and has now thrown more innings in the AL than he did last year in Triple-A, so fatigue may be something of a factor for him at this point in the season (though it hasn't really shown so far). He's also not especially athletic, and the Angels may want to put pressure on him by bunting for hits in certain situations.

I'm not sure which way Scioscia will go with Figgins tonight; both Finley and Izturis seem like possibilities in the lineup. Given Finley's home run and double on Saturday, I suspect he gets the nod:

Figgins - 3B
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - DH
Guerrero - RF
Rivera - LF
Erstad - 1B
Molina - C
Finley - CF
Kennedy - 2B

Travesty 

Posted 12:51 PM by Sean
Neither tonight's Angels-A's game nor tomorrow's is available on Extra Innings. How retarded is that?

Guess I'll end up springing for the mlb.com video and squinting at the damn computer screen all night...

One punch at a time 

Posted 10:07 AM by Sean
With the magic number down to eight, the last thing the Angels need is complacency, which may mean that being swept by the Devil Rays earlier in the season will have the side benefit of keeping the boys sharp this weekend. Nothing like the lingering smell of humiliation to put a little more fizz in your soda, right?

Adam Kennedy, at least, is singing the right tune:

"It's better to be up three games than down three, but we have three tough games
against Tampa Bay [beginning tonight] and four at Oakland [beginning Monday],"
said Angel second baseman Adam Kennedy, who had two doubles, a single and a run
batted in Thursday. "A three-game lead seems like a lot to some, but it's not."

Tonight, the Angels will face Casey Fossum, a lefty with a fastball, a slider, and a couple of curveball variations. This would probably be a good night to give Darin Erstad the night off, but I think the lineup will probably look something like this:

Figgins - CF
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - DH
Guerrero - RF
Molina - C
Erstad - 1B
Rivera - LF
Quinlan - 3B
Kennedy - 2B

...with Molina and Rivera possibly swapping spots in the order. If Garret Anderson is held completely out of the lineup for another day, I think we'd likely see Bengie moved to DH while Jose Molina catches. Jose is a good candidate to get a start on Sunday, since (1) on Sunday the Angels play a day game after Saturday's night game, (2) they face a left-handed pitcher, and (3) John Lackey - he of the 18 wild pitches this year - will very possibly be starting on short rest.

Posting and running 

Posted 3:42 PM by Sean
Agh - swamped with stuff to do today, just just some quick notes:

* That little chess match between Scioscia and Showalter last night was excellent. Give Scioscia credit for being unafraid to pinch-hit Quinlan for Kennedy, the right move regardless of Kennedy's veteran status, and for making what turned out to be the right decision by not pinch-running for Bengie Molina in the seventh, preserving Jose Molina to pinch-hit for Kotchman.

* Tonight's Rangers starter is Chris Young, who hasn't pitched in a game in about two weeks. In his last start, he left after one inning due to arm fatigue; he's right around his career high for innings pitched, and is expected to go no more than five innings today. Originally, the Rangers were expected to use Ryan Rupe in long relief today, which may be out the window after they had to use Rupe last night for 1.2 innings.

* Young is somewhat similar to Loe in that he's a very tall right hander - 6'10", in fact, which makes him the tallest pitcher in Rangers history. He lives off his fastball, but mixes in a changeup, a curve, and a slider, none of which are better than average. Lefties hit him better than righties, but, most importantly, he's an extreme flyball pitcher - about 0.60 grounders to every fly ball. Hence the lineup will be heavy on the lefties again, and hopefully Anderson will be in good enough shape to at least swing the bat. After putting a charge into a couple of pitches last night, Finley is a distinct possibility if GA can't play.

* Expect to hear all about that nighttime marine layer keeping balls in the park from Hudler and Physioc.

Biting and clawing 

Posted 12:43 AM by Sean
More detailed thoughts tomorrow, but for now, three observations:

1. The Angels are now 21 games over .500 for the first time all season. They'd hit the 20-game mark three or four times, but went into a skid each time.

2. Although the Rangers were already mathematically eliminated from the division race, tonight's win guaranteed that they won't be able to pass the Angels.

3. The Angels now have the same lead as the White Sox.

Today's lineup notes 

Posted 2:01 PM by Sean
Last night, Mike Scioscia started almost exactly the lineup I would have preferred, opting only to swap Erstad and Molina in the 5 and 6 spots. At first, I thought that things were going to go pretty well - particularly after Orlando Cabrera laid off a few fastballs below the zone and drove a changeup back through the middle for a base hit in his first at-bat. Eventually, however, Dominguez started locating his fastball, and kept the Angels off-balance for most of the rest of the game.

Fortunately, in a game that was all about pitching, Bartolo Colon continued to show why he's the first true ace the Angels have had in a long, long time. Until his back stiffened up in the sixth, Colon was almost unhittable, craftily inducing several desperation swings that ended up being soft grounders. He may or may not end up winning the Cy Young Award this year, but he's definitely the club's first 20-game winner in 31 years, and for that he gets huge props.

Somewhat parenthetically, how amazing is it that the four Angels' starters with enough innings to qualify for postseason awards are all in the top 13 in American League ERA?

Colon - 3.34 (4th)
Washburn - 3.35 (5th)
Lackey - 3.46 (8th)
Byrd - 3.62 (13th)

And then there's Maicer Izturis, whose inexplicable case of the yips resulted in three errors in two innings at third base. I think we'll just chalk that one up to bad luck and move on.

Today, the Angels face Kameron Loe, a 6'8" righthander who's been in and out of the rotation for Texas this year (and only pitched 7.2 innings for the big club last year). In his most recent stint as a starter, he's been very good, with a sub-3.00 ERA, though he hasn't faced any high-octane offenses in that period.

In Loe, the Angels face another starter with some pretty glaring splits. Lefties hit Loe pretty dang good:

vRHB - .218/.265/.308 (168 PA), 1.93 BB/9, 6.21 K/9, 7.29 H/9
vLHB - .290/.357/.464 (156 PA), 3.67 BB/9, 2.88 K/9, 10.49 H/9

I mean, whoa. That's pretty extreme. The really interesting bit comes when we look at the grounder-to-fly-ball ratios:

vRHB - 3.13 G/F
vLHB - 1.49 G/F

Loe relies heavily on a hard sinker, and it shows in the numbers. This spells particular trouble for Guerrero, who has a 1.86 G/F ratio in September, by far his most terraphiliac month of 2005, and for Bengie Molina, who becomes even more of a double-play possibility than usual.

What does this mean in terms of lineup construction? Principally it means that there are even more competing interests at work than usual as well. You want a lot of lefties in to take advantage of Loe's splits, so Kotchman is a strong possiblity. Rivera hits righties well, and seems to have won Scioscia's confidence by playing well lately, so he's probably in. Izturis is a switch-hitter, and would be a stolen-base threat that could hit in front of Molina to minimize double-play opportunities.

There's just not enough room for all of them. In the ideal world, I think the lineup would look something like this:

Figgins - 3B
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - DH
Guerrero - RF
Erstad - CF
Kotchman - 1B
Rivera - LF
Molina - C
Kennedy - 2B

But that's not going to happen, because Scioscia is not going to put Erstad in center. I think it's slightly possible that Rivera may play center - he's got 130 innings there in his career, 30 of which have come this season - but it's also possible that Scioscia will opt to play Figgins in center, DH Erstad or Kotchman, and put Izturis in the 7 spot. Scioscia has shown a tendency to show confidence in guys who've had bad games by putting them right back on the horse (which he did to good effect with Donnelly after game 1 of the 2002 ALDS).

The possibility of Steve Finley starting in center should probably be acknowledged as well, but the prospect makes me too depressed to go on.

Harden won't start, but may relieve? 

Posted 1:42 PM by Sean
Ken Macha all but concedes that Rich Harden won't start again for the A's, but...

Harden might, however, be well enough to pitch out of the bullpen down the
stretch and -- should the A's qualify -- in the postseason. With a less
aggressive throwing program, Harden could be ready to throw 40-45 pitches by the
final week of the season. If he is ready, the A's will use him as the Angels
have used Kelvim Escobar, a starter whose rehab from an elbow injury landed him
in a relief role with the American League West frontrunners.

"I would think that's what we'd do with [Harden], yeah," Macha said.
"Escobar's given their bullpen a big boost."

And now, the home stretch 

Posted 12:04 PM by Sean
That's it. No more off days, just baseball now: thirteen games to make it or blow it. A two-game lead in the loss column to defend, all the pieces they're going to have, gut-check time.

It starts with Texas, a team that's played the Angels tough over the last couple of years. Though the Angels seem to usually come out on top, the games have been incredibly tense. Tonight's should be no exception, as the Rangers would like nothing better than to play the spoiler role here. In addition to derailing the Angels' season, they've also got to be gunning for a couple of individual streaks: Bartolo Colon's 9-0 record versus the Rangers, and Vladimir Guerrero's 31-game hitting streak against them.

Texas starts Juan Dominguez tonight, who's never started against the Angels but did pitch effectively against them in relief earlier this year. Dominguez is kind of a mirror image of Jason Johnson, in that he's substantially worse against righties:

vLHB - .230/.322/.410, 1.29 G/F, 115 PA, 4.39 BB/9, 6.08 K/9, 7.76 H/9
vRHB - .297/.344/.432, 1.03 G/F, 129 PA, 2.51 BB/9, 6.59 K/9, 10.99 H/9

The interesting bit is that Dominguez is himself a right-hander, so his splits are the reverse of normal. Looking at the numbers, we see that a fairly substantial number of the walks he issues to lefties are being transmuted to hits by righties. Dominguez is a fastball-changeup guy who mixes in the occasional curve, so I'm not really sure what's going on there, but if I had to guess I'd say that right-handers have been hitting that changeup, which they see just a tiny bit later than lefties do (making the functional difference between the change and the fastball that much less).

This makes things interesting in terms of the lineup. Obviously, the usual righties will need to step up and drive the ball - Guerrero, Cabrera, and Bengie Molina, front and center, please. I would hope, as well, that Juan Rivera will be in the starting lineup; Rivera actually hits righties better than he hits lefties (.293/.335/.494 this year), so things are really set up for him to perform. The real questions, as always, will be at third base and center field. Figgins is a given to play one of those spots. If he's in center, Robb Quinlan (a righty) could play third - but I think Quinlan's .152/.204/.196 line against righties makes him suspect, even against Dominguez. If Figgins plays third, Finley or DaVanon could play center, but both of them have been terrible against righties as well.

Instead, I think the best of a set of bad options is probably to start Figgins in center and Maicer Izturis at third. Izturis is a switch-hitter currently batting .269/.310/.381 against righties, and he's about as good a third-baseman as either Quinlan or Figgins.

My preference would be to see something like this:

Figgins - CF
Cabrera - SS
Anderson - LF/DH
Guerrero - RF/DH
Molina, B. - C
Erstad - 1B
Rivera - LF/RF/DH
Izturis - 3B
Kennedy - 2B

Why Molina fifth instead of Rivera? Simply put, protection for Vlad. Rivera may be hitting well, may even be expected to hit better than Molina if you're just going by the splits. But protection isn't just about being a better hitter on a given day, it's about having a reputation. True, Rivera might have as good or better a shot at making the Rangers pay for walking Guerrero, but the Rangers don't really know him well enough to respect him. They know Molina, though - and they damn sure know he's hit .393/.486/.643 off Texas pitching this year. With Molina hitting fifth, Guerrero will see more pitches. Erstad, meanwhile, hits ahead of Rivera solely to break up the righty-lefty matchups in the late innings.

Of course, it's also possible that Jose Molina will catch tonight; Colon often throws to Jose, in which case I'd bump Rivera, Erstad, and Izturis up and bat him eighth (ideally, you'd want Izturis to get on base, Molina to bunt him over, and Kennedy to drive him in). Considering the Angels are coming off an off-day, though, I suspect Scioscia will opt for Bengie.

Of tangential interest 

Posted 10:51 AM by Sean
A couple of items:

* Troy Percival will not need elbow surgery. It's still unclear whether he'll be able to pitch next year; if not, he's expected to retire.

* A's ace Rich Harden "has no idea" if he'll be able to pitch again this year, according to the San Jose Mercury-News. In the same article, we learn that A's shortstop Bobby Crosby's return is being delayed, in part, because he is unable to take infield/batting practice today because McAfee Coliseum is being converted from football to baseball configuration, and is hence unavailable. (Update: Rob sez that Will Carroll sez that Harden is very likely done for the season. Also, Brad told Ashley that Tiffany totally saw Tyler making out with Courtney under the bleachers during halftime on Friday, OMG!)

Greetings from 1:10 in the morning 

Posted 1:11 AM by Sean
It's late here in Dallas, but it's so ridiculously nice to actually win a close game that a quick post is called for. In essence, the lefties did, in fact, do pretty well against Jason Johnson, keeping the Angels in it when Lackey stumbled in the sixth. And then Shields was good, Rodriguez tottered and stumbled but didn't fall down, and Escobar was golden for three innings, long enough to bring around an inning that included a Guerrero single, an error, a sacrifice bunt, and a little single by Robb Quinlan through a drawn-in infield to win it. And so the Angels go back up by a game, with fifteen to play.

The A's, meanwhile, lost in the bottom of the tenth in Fenway, when Keiichi Yabu plunked Manny Ramirez with the bases loaded to force in a run. See, they suck too!

The Angels' win tonight was their 82nd of the year, guaranteeing them a second straight winning season. This is only the fourth time in team history they've had back-to-back winning seasons; the others occured in 1997-98, 1985-86, and 1978-79. They've never had three consecutive winning seasons, though they did finish exactly at .500 in 1984.

What comes around 

Posted 3:18 PM by Sean
Shockingly, Jose Guillen has thrown a temper tantrum, tossing equipment onto the field after being called out for arguing balls and strikes, and may be disciplined by the league - making him unavailable as the Nationals try to capture the NL wild card. Most embarrassingly clueless quote from Frank Robinson:

"You'd like to see him a little bit more in control," Robinson told the
Washington Post on Thursday, "and understand, especially in this situation, the
importance of having everybody available here and not being without one of your
better players for any type of time, even if it's one game."

Riiiiight. 'Cause the guy who went off on a screaming tirade for no apparent reason at Angel Stadium last June, then sulked in the dugout like an eight-year-old for the rest of the series, has all kinds of business talking about how folks should be "a little bit more in control."

Hey, Nats fans? Guess what? You're NOT different from everybody else - turns out Jose Guillen's a selfish prick when you're concerned, too. Boo hoo for you.

Notes on tonight's lineup 

Posted 12:19 PM by Sean
Jason Johnson, pitching for the Tigers tonight, has been considerably worse versus lefties than righties this season:

vLHB: .315/.360/.491, 12 HR, 184 TBF
vRHB: .254/.286/.357, 8 HR, 124 TBF

Johnson is also much more of a ground-ball pitcher against righties, with a GB/FB ratio higher than 2.0, while lefties put the ball on the ground against him only slightly more than they put it in the air.

With this in mind, I expect the left-handed contingent to feature prominently in tonight's lineup; I think we probably have to resign ourselves to seeing Steve Finley in center. If Guerrero is able to play tonight after jamming his shoulder last night, this sounds about like what Scioscia is likely to do:

Figgins - 3B (S)
Cabrera - SS (R)
Anderson - LF (L)
Guerrero - RF (R)
Erstad - 1B/DH (L)
Kotchman - DH/1B (L)
Molina, B - C (R)
Finley - CF (L)
Kennedy - 2B (L)

If Guerrero is not in the lineup, Scioscia will have to choose between leaving Figgins at third and moving him to right, a position he has played 10 times in his career (8 this year). Given his escapades last night, third base might be the better bet. Additionally, the other options Scioscia has at third are Robb Quinlan, who hits righties to the tune of .152/.204/.196, and Maicer Izturis, who's at a relatively respectable but not spectacular .266/.309/.383.

So that leaves us with the choice of who to play right field in Guerrero's absence, if indeed he is absent. Jeff DaVanon switch-hits, but is hitting .209/.324/.278 versus righties this year. Juan Rivera is a righty, but actually hits righties better than he hits lefties - .276/.318/.485. Given that he's been pretty obviously outshining DaVanon recently, Rivera would seem to be the logical choice. In that case, the lineup could get interesting. It's possible - maybe likely - that Rivera would just hit fourth, in Guerrero's place. It also seems possible, though, that the right thing to do would be to move Erstad up in the lineup to third, bat Anderson cleanup, and use Rivera - who did homer last night, after all - as protection for Anderson.

In any event, the one thing that seems clear is that if the Angels are going to turn things around tonight, they're going to have to get the guys who've been most obviously missing - Anderson, Erstad, and even Finley - to contribute. This game gives them just about the most favorable conditions they could have. In that sense, this game is a test, and the Angels damn well better pass, or get ready for a winter's worth of "what went wrong?"

Grim work ahead 

Posted 4:44 PM by Sean
Lest anyone think that just getting off the road and settling down to face Detroit is much of an incentive...

Tonight's pitcher for Detroit is Mike Maroth. The Angels have faced him twice this year, and lost those games 10-1 and 3-2.

The lineup is likely to feature the following:

Placido Polanco - would be second in the AL in batting average if they counted the games he played for the Phillies before being traded in June; hitting .361 since July 14.

Magglio Ordonez - power threat hitting .328 since coming off the DL July 1.

Ivan Rodriguez - future Hall of Famer with a little gas still left in the tank.

Curtis Granderson - speedy son of a bitch who's 8 for his last 16.

Plus power from Dmitri Young, speed from Nook Logan, and occasional contributions from guys like Brandon Inge, Carlos Pena, Chris Shelton, and Omar Infante.

Buckle up, gang. Bear down, Halos.

Travs up against it; Owl* on the verge 

Posted 1:27 PM by Sean
Rob's on hiatus, so it falls to me (okay, me and Stephen Smith, no relation) to point out that the Arkansas Travelers' season may end tonight. Down 0-2 to the Midland Rockhounds in the Texas League championship, the Travs will start Jered Weaver tonight in an effort to stave off elimination in the best-of-five series.

Meanwhile, the Pioneer League Orem Owl* (actual name too stupid to fully spell out) have a 2-0 lead in their championship series with the Helena Brewers, and will look to wrap things up tonight.

Stephen has links to webcasts for both games on his site.

No miracle, no dazzle 

Posted 9:55 AM by Sean
For Christ's sake, does nobody want to win this godforsaken division?

For the second straight game, the Angels lost a walk-off to Seattle, the worst team in the division, on a day in which the A's lost to the Indians. And, for the second straight day, the A's blew a winnable game on a day in which they had an opportunity to tie the Angels in the standings. You know, the Rangers aren't eliminated yet...

I suppose the good news for the Angels is that they actually seemed to show a little bit of sack yesterday, coming back from 6-0 early and 9-7 late, before finally boning themselves in the ear enough times to hand a series sweep to the Mariners. I wasn't able to watch this game until the very end - I saw Frankie intentionally walk Dobbs and then give up the game-winning single - but from all accounts the game turned on Maicer Izturis inexplicably being sent home on an attempt to score from first on a botched throw following a bunt. Ron Roenicke isn't exactly known for screwing up that kind of call, so I guess this one gets chalked up to simple bad luck and failed execution.

The other silver lining, I suppose, is that no one on the team can now possibly believe that they have the division won. I mentioned at the start of the roadtrip that these three games with the Mariners were dangerous, since the Angels might have a little letdown effect following their games with the Red Sox and White Sox, and maybe that's just what happened, serving as a stark reminder that they can lose to anyone, anytime.

We'll see tonight, I suppose, when noted burly individual and putative staff ace Bartolo Colon takes the mound looking for his 20th win, which would make him the Angels' first 20-game winner since God wore short pants. It would also solidify Colon's Cy Young campaign, a consideration that I suspect may keep him pitching regardless of how his back is feeling.

Meanwhile, the A's start a four-game series in Boston, and the Rangers host Seattle. I fully expect a Texas sweep of that series, adding the maximum amount of insult to injury.

Remembering to breathe 

Posted 11:33 PM by Sean
The Angels still lead the West by a game.

The Angels still lead the West by a game.

The Angels still lead the West by a game.

The Angels still lead the West by a game.

So THAT's why they play the games... 

Posted 1:20 PM by Sean
Last night's 8-1 loss to the Mariners was one of the few I turned off early; in this case when it hit 6-1 and it was clear that Piniero was going to continue his little run of giving the Angels fits. Fairly frustrating, since the Angels seemed to have several hard-hit balls, they just found gloves.

One-game playoff sites determined 

Posted 3:13 PM by Sean
The coin flipping has started. If the A's and Angels tie for first in the A.L. West, a one-game playoff will be held at Angel Stadium.

Interestingly, they have not yet seen the need to determine the site of a potential playoff in which the Angels would be vying for the wild card.

Twenty games 

Posted 2:56 PM by Sean
On the morning of September 6, the Angels found themselves in Boston about to begin back-to-back series with the other division winners. Though they led Oakland by 1.5 games, they also knew that the A's would be playing Seattle and Texas over that stretch, meaning that there was a good chance they'd come out the other side with a diminished lead, or even having given the lead up entirely.

Instead, here on September 12, the lead is 2 games. The Angels swept the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend with a tense extra-inning victory on Friday followed by a pair of games that were not much in doubt past the third inning or so. The Chicago series may have washed some of the bad taste out of the Angels' mouths after they played poorly at Fenway, where they were seemingly lucky to win one out of three, and now, from all indications, they need only continue to play well against a significantly easier schedule than the A's will face.

But how can you possibly follow baseball and expect things will be as easy as that?

The greatest advantage the Angels have right now is simply that they are in control. While the A's will be forced to watch the scoreboard, regardless of whether or not they win, the Angels just have to win and everything else will take care of itself. The A's have to worry about their best pitcher, who will miss at least another week and possibly the rest of the season. The Angels have a spare starter in the bullpen. The A's have to worry about Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay, both of whom will probably miss time with injuries, while the Angels have trouble getting at-bats for Quinland, Rivera, and Kotchman.

There are twenty games left in the season, and the Angels are in a position to begin stepping on some necks. If they can keep the intensity they've shown over the weekend, they'll be in fine shape.

Noted in passing 

Posted 12:31 PM by Sean
The Seattle Mariners have been eliminated from postseason contention; though they could mathematically tie the Angels, the Angels would have to lose all four of their games to Oakland - which would put the A's out of reach for the Mariners. They are also mathematically unable to catch Cleveland in the wild card race.

I know less than I did before I read this 

Posted 9:50 AM by Sean
According to Mike Scarr on the Angels' website:

If Colon cannot go Saturday in a potential Cy Young battle with Jon Garland,
left-hander Joe Saunders will likely get the nod. The rookie was called up Aug.
16 and made a spot start against the Blue Jays. Over 7 2/3 innings, Saunders
allowed two runs on five hits and two walks.

I'm not sure why Scarr says this, since he doesn't back it up with anything from anyone in a position to know who's likely to start on Saturday. He quotes Scioscia as saying that if Saunders starts, he'll surely do a good job, but that's neither here nor there. Escobar did warm up briefly in the bullpen last night, but was not used in the game.

In the same article, we learn that Maicer Izturis, while not back at full strength, should now be available as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Update: Things get clearer on the Escobar/Saunders situation. DiGiovanna in the Times says:

If ace Bartolo Colon (pain in lower back) can't make Saturday's scheduled
start against the White Sox, rookie left-hander Joe Saunders — and not Kelvim
Escobar — will probably pitch.

Escobar, who could emerge as one of the Angels' primary set-up men, warmed
up in the eighth inning Thursday night, and Manager Mike Scioscia said he would
be available in relief tonight.

"He could be a valuable piece to the bullpen, and you'd hate to bypass that
for an opportunity to start Saturday," Scioscia said of Escobar.

MLB.com's probable pitchers page agrees:

Colon is tentatively scheduled to start against the White Sox. The right-hander
left in the sixth inning of his last start with soreness in his lower back. If
Colon does not start, rookie left-hander Joe Saunders will get the call.
Saunders is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in one start with the Angels this season.

I still think they should wait and see what happens tonight before making the call, though.

Live Nude Strength of Schedule Update 

Posted 9:28 AM by Sean
After last night's Angels win over Boston, both the Angels and A's have 23 games remaining. Both teams have 10 home games and 13 road games left.

LAA: CWS (3), SEA (3), DET (4), TEX (6), TAM (3), OAK (4)
OAK: TEX (6), CLE (3), BOS (4), MIN (3), LAA (4), SEA (3)

Angels' opponent winning percentage: .497
A's opponent winning percentage: .527
Angels' unique opponent winning percentage: .513
A's unique opponent winning percentage: .562

(all OWPs weighted for number of games against)

This weekend, when the Angels take on the White Sox and the A's play Texas, represents the second-to-last point in the season at which the Angels play a team with an OWP (currently) higher than that of the A's opponent. The last such point will come on the very last weekend of the season, when the A's are in Seattle and the Angels are in Texas.

Wha? 

Posted 10:28 AM by Sean
It's looking more like Colon will miss his start on Saturday, apropos of which Mike DiGiovanna in the Times notes the following:

Would the Angels be better off using left-hander Joe Saunders as an
emergency starter and keeping Escobar, who threw 1 2/3 scoreless innings and
escaped a two-on, one-out jam in the seventh inning against the Red Sox on
Tuesday night, in the bullpen?

"Some guys [in the bullpen] have struggled, and
having a power arm like Kelvim's could take some pressure off the other guys,"
Scioscia said. "But you have to balance that with the impact he could have
starting."

DiGiovanna coyly does not indicate whether or not Scioscia was actually asked that question, and, if so, whether his quote was in response to it. Stating that Escobar could be used in two different ways is, of course, utterly non-responsive to the question of which of those two ways serves the team best.

As far as I'm concerned, it works out like this: if Saunders pitches on Saturday, the worst possible scenario is that he gets pounded and the Angels lose one game. If Escobar pitches Saturday, the worst possible scenario is that the Angels lose three or four games because they don't have him available to come out of the pen. I grant you that the former is more likely than the latter, but even so I find it difficult to believe that the comparative advantage of starting Escobar over Saunders versus the White Sox is greater than that of having Escobar available to shut down the Red Sox, White Sox, and Mariners in the late innings.

Addendum: Of course, things do change significantly if Escobar simply isn't needed in relief tonight or tomorrow. In that case, it's a much closer call. My preference, then, would be to use Escobar in relief if he's needed, and otherwise delay a decision on Saturday's starter until after Friday's game. Which seems so logical and intuitive that I despair of seeing it come to pass.

Let's try this again 

Posted 2:20 PM by Sean
I suppose the good news out of last night's game would be that Finley can't possibly be in the lineup for any reason short of a 6-run lead or deficit, can he? Please, tell me he can't.

Angels - Santana (4.52 ERA, 97.2 IP, 102 H, 70 K, 35 BB; quality starts in 6 of his last 7 but in uncharted territory as far as innings pitched for the season)

Red Sox - Arroyo (4.47 ERA, 173.1 IP, 181 H, 91 K, 40 BB; consistently mediocre but gives the Angels trouble)

A's - Haren (3.86 ERA, 186.2 IP, 183 H, 137 K, 48 BB; previous Major League high for innings pitched was 72.2)

Mariners - Franklin (5.24 ERA, 159.2 IP, 179 H, 78 K, 55 BB; is 0-3 with 14 ER in 21.2 IP against Oakland this year)

Reaction 

Posted 9:17 AM by Sean
The quotes this morning are interesting.

On pulling Escobar for Shields:

Escobar added a scoreless eighth, his pitch count reaching 27, but instead of
leaving Escobar in for the ninth, Scioscia turned to Shields, the struggling
setup man who is 2-5 with a 6.13 earned-run average in his last 14 outings.

The reason? Escobar may be needed to replace Bartolo Colon (back spasms)
in the rotation Saturday, so Scioscia didn't want to extend Escobar on Tuesday
night.

"Bart's situation was considered," Scioscia said. "Kelvim was
close to 30 pitches. That was enough."

Fair enough on the surface. But when you think about it, this means that Scioscia has pretty much told the world that Escobar won't be used in relief as we approach Saturday unless Colon is given the all-clear. And that's a disaster.

Obviously, the ability to sub Escobar for Colon is nice. But that's one game - and a game against a weak-hitting team, when you've already got Joe Saunders on your roster, who's made one excellent spot start for you earlier in the year. Even if Escobar is available for an inning tonight, starting him Saturday takes him out of tomorrow and Friday's game, plus Sunday's, probably Monday's, and maybe even Tuesday's. How many situations are going to arise in those games in which the Angels need to protect a lead or keep it close in the late innings?

On subbing Finley for Quinlan:

Right-handed hitting Juan Rivera had three hits in seven at-bats against
Wakefield, and the left-handed Finley, the Angels' most disappointing player
this season, was hitless in three at-bats against Wakefield. But Scioscia went
with Finley, who started one game in the previous week and has a .215 average.

"I felt good with Finley driving the ball, getting the ball to the outfield,"
Scioscia said. "Rivera was an option we considered. But I thought Finley swung
the bat well his last five or six at-bats."

Steve Finley's last six at-bats:

9/4 vs. Seattle (Matt Thornton) - took a ball and two strikes before singling to right.
9/4 vs. Seattle (Shigetoshi Hasegawa) - took a strike, fouled one off, took two balls, grounded out to second.
9/4 vs. Seattle (Jeff Harris) - took two balls, fouled one off, flied out to center.
8/27 at Tampa (Danys Baez) - took a ball, took a strike, took a ball, fouled one off, fouled out to third.
8/27 at Tampa (Doug Waechter) - took three balls, took two strikes, fouled off two and struck out swinging.
8/27 at Tampa (Doug Waechter) - took a strike, grounded to short.

So that's going 1 for 6. In those six at-bats, he swung the bat 11 times, and produced something other than a strike or an out exactly once. He got the ball out of the infield twice.

Sleepless 

Posted 1:04 AM by Sean
It's past 1:00 in the morning, and I am unable to sleep, struck insomniac for lack of understanding. I am surpassed; the essential reasoning behind the following escape me.

One: Erstad batting fifth, behind Guerrero? As tenaciously as I will defend Erstad, this makes no sense. He's clearly not a threat to go yard. Molina, yes. Kotchman, sure. But Erstad?

Two: Steve Finley. I mean, I'm now at the point where I physically have to quell my gag reflex when I type the name. Why on EARTH do you bring him in for Robb Quinlan? How in God's name do you expect any outcome other than failure to bring the run in from third?

Three: After receiving a minor miracle from Kelvim Escobar to retire the side after Brendan Donnelly left runners at second and third with one out, why lift him in favor of Scot Shields in the ninth? I grant you that Escobar had thrown 27 pitches, but why was he being stretched out in the minors - his last rehab start went around 75 pitches - if not to enable him to provide that kind of thing? With Boston's 3-4-5 hitters up, you go to a guy who's had control problems lately over the guy who just dominated over the last two innings?

It is seldom that I blame poor managerial decisions for a loss, at least with this team. Normally it's simple failure to execute. But this! This!

Proving ground 

Posted 2:19 PM by Sean
Tonight, the Angels begin their toughest stretch of games remaining: three in Boston, three in Chicago, three in Seattle (and don't think that letdown won't be a factor for those last three). Here, in these nine games, lies Oakland's real hope of capturing the A.L. West; they themselves will host Seattle for two more games, then go on the road to Texas and Cleveland. Though the Angels and A's do play four more games in Oakland, that series is unlikely to change the standings by more than a couple of games - and the Angels already lead by two in the loss column.

So the ability to hold serve here amounts to the ability to jump firmly into the driver's seat in this race. Once the Angels leave Chicago, the A's will be the only team above .500 left on their schedule, while the A's will have to play Cleveland, Minnesota, Boston, and, of course, the Angels.

Their makeup game against the White Sox notwithstanding, tonight's game also represents the start of a fairly brutal stretch for the Bostons - three with the Angels, a road trip to New York and Toronto, and back home against Oakland - that will probably make or break their chances to win the East. So there will be more than one team getting their gamest of game faces on for this series.

To be honest, this year's edition of the Red Sox scares me less than last year's. In 2004, Boston was the one team I feared. This year, that team is Cleveland. Even so, the Angels are vulnerable to Boston's ability to score runs in bunches, since their own offense remains locked in a funk.

In any event, we've passed the final turn and are entering the home stretch. From here on out, these are the games you hope for when the season starts - meaningful games in September.

Angels - Lackey (3.45 ERA, 172.1 IP, 174 K, 60 BB; 3 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 starts)
Red Sox - Wakefield (4.41 ERA, 180.2 IP, 116 K, 61 BB; won 6 of his last 7 but somewhat rocky in his last 3)

A's - Kennedy (6.02 ERA, 121 IP, 72 K, 56 BB; just 'cause you pitched in Colorado doesn't mean you're not a pumpkin)
Mariners - Piniero - (5.59 ERA, 158.2 IP, 87 K, 48 BB; quality starts in 5 of his last 6)

A little history to watch for 

Posted 4:45 PM by Sean
Speaking of franchise winning records, something fairly remarkable will likely happen to the Atlanta Braves next year. The Braves entered play today with a franchise record (since 1876) of 9519-9542, 23 games below .500. If and when they make it to .500, it will be the first time the franchise has won as many games as it's lost since June 1, 1923.

The Braves were actually a feared and powerful team for quite a while in the 19th century, and had several good years in the early 20th century as well - they were 518 games over .500 after the 1902 season, but ended the 1922 season just six games over. I'm not certain, but it's entirely possible that the Braves had never been below .500 before 1923, since they had winning records in each of their first four seasons - if the Braves franchise spent any time at all with a losing overall record, it was limited solely to 1876 and maybe very early 1877.

On May 25, 1923, however, the Braves dropped a doubleheader to the Phillies, taking them to exactly .500 for the franchise's history. They bounced back a bit, but finally dropped below sea level on May 31, losing the opener of a three-game series with Brooklyn. June 1 would prove to be the last day they ended play at or above .500, taking game two of the series. Unfortunately for them, the bottom then dropped out: the Bostons lost their next twelve straight, and 19 of their next 21.

The Braves have been trying to get back to .500 for eighty-two years. Unless something goes seriously awry, expect this to be the feel-good story of next summer.

Same old song and dance 

Posted 3:55 PM by Sean
Ever since ESPN columnist and noted sack of crap Rob Neyer went behind ESPN's for-pay wall, I've had little occasion to discuss what he has to say about the Angels. Fortunately, Haloblog appears to have a subscription:

What I have difficulty forgetting, however, is just how ridiculous this whole
Rob Neyer thing is. It's as though the Angels are his whipping-boys. Neyer is so
biased in his coverage of the Angels and their players that it's practically
sickening. First of all, the little pencil-neck bastard couldn't even so much as
play catch with a Major Leaguer, so I've some difficulty trusting his word on
baseball. Second, his boyhood loyalty for the then AL West rival KC Royals
clouds his judgment of the Angels. He hates them, hates everything about them,
always has, and it's just too obvious these days. He's spent his "career"
tearing down Nolan Ryan and Darin Erstad, built a reputation on defining who is
and isn't "over-paid" and "overrated." Consistently, his lists include current
or former Angels. C'mon Rob, get over it. His latest,
over at ESPN Insider (registration and payment required) is no exception. First
it was Nolan Ryan, then it was Darin Erstad, now it's GA.

Right. See, all you need to know about Rob Neyer is that he thinks that Erstad's four-year, $32 million contract was "one hell of a price to pay" for their 2002 World Series championship, as if they should've saved the money and spent it on something more important.

That said, let us take a moment to pity poor Rob, whose beloved Kansas City Royals are pretty close to being the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked, and have no relief on the horizon. Even the Brewers are getting better, but not the Royals. In fact, just in this one season, the Royals' franchise winning percentage has dropped from .495 to .491, so maybe Neyer's most recent crampiness has something to do with the fact that the Angels, at .489 and rising, are now poised to overtake the Royals in the franchise success standings - probably for a long, long time.

Escobar update 

Posted 3:09 PM by Sean
After Santana's performance last night, I suspect that Escobar will, in fact, step into a bullpen role when he returns. Escobar's done reasonably well so far in his rehab assignment at Salt Lake:

8.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 8 H, 14 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, 1 WP, 1 HB, .242 OBA

Escobar is expected to make his final rehab start tonight and make about 75 pitches.

(Update: in that same article, we note the passing of the Bret Prinz era; Prinz ended up pitching a grand total of three innings for the Angels, all in April. Assuming he was paid the $342,322 the Angels signed him for, Prinz made $5611.84 per pitch. I'm not sure which is more depressing to me - that fact, or the fact that Roger Clemens will end up with a very similar per-pitch earnings number multiplied over the course of an entire season.)

Your Friday strength of schedule numbers 

Posted 11:27 AM by Sean
Twenty-nine games left, and things are again tied up at the top of the AL West. Here's how those twenty-nine look for the Angels and A's:

LAA: SEA(6), BOS(3), CWS(3), DET(4), TEX(6), TAM(3), OAK(4)
OAK: NYY(3), SEA(6), TEX(6), CLE(3), BOS(4), MIN(3), LAA(4)

Overall opponent winning percentages:
LAA - .500
OAK - .519

"Unique" opponent winning percentages:
LAA - .517
OAK - .556

It's obvious just looking at the schedule that Oakland has a significantly tougher row to hoe here, though it's not as wide a gap as the OWP numbers would suggest, since Tampa has played very well in the second half. The Angels are also at a very slight disadvantage because of the home/road splits - they play 13 at home and 16 on the road, including the four remaining with Oakland, while the A's play 16 at home and 13 on the road. If we're going to consider that, however, we might as well also consider that the Angels are a much better team at night (57-38) than they are during the day (18-20), while the A's are exactly the opposite (30-15 in day games, 45-43 at night). The Angels have eight day games remaining, while the A's have either 18 or 19 night games left (one game with Seattle is still TBD), including three of the four with the Angels.

The Angels need one thing right now, and that's offense. Although Santana is rightly being praised for his terrific start last night, I was almost equally cheered by Chone Figgins's performance at the top of the order: three for three with a walk, a run scored, and two stolen bases against a left-handed starter. Garret Anderson's three for four night was pretty nice, too. Guerrero continues to be a concern, however. He's just not over that stretch of games in which he was walked intentionally so often; he seems to be panicked that opposing pitchers will start doing so again at any time, so he needs to swing now. His double in the eighth was nice, but was probably more the result of Witasik making a bad pitch than anything else - I'm not sure whether it was meant to be more inside or lower, but I'm damn sure you don't intentionally throw Guerrero a fastball that close to the middle of the strike zone when he's looked so bad swinging at junk. Bad pitch or no, however, hopefully Guerrero gets a little confidence-boost from it.

The other guy the Angels need to come around is Adam Kennedy. Just as he was under the radar while building a pretty gaudy batting average, his recent free-fall seems to have been eclipsed by Vlad Guerrero's icy performance. AK's drawn the collar in six of his last seven games, going just 2 for 21 in that stretch, and had a .267/.326/.326 August with a total of three extra-base hits.

One step closer to self-parody 

Posted 12:14 PM by Sean
Goddamn Yeswecan for putting this in my head.

PURGATORY ONLINE PRESENTS

a SEAN PURGATORY PRODUCTION:

GUYS AND BALLS

[The scene - interior, Bill Stoneman's office at Angel Stadium. STONEMAN, SCOSCIA, and VARIOUS BASEBALL WRITERS are gathered around, discussing the upcoming season]

SCIOSCIA, STONEMAN, VARIOUS BASEBALL WRITERS
(to the tune of "The Oldest Established")
Troy Percival wanted four mil
Now he's left some big shoes to fill
So we now need a guy in the ninth
Who can crush out the other guys' life

Why, it's good old reliable Frankie,
Frankie, Frankie, Frankie to close!
If you're looking for strikeouts, he'll furnish a few
Even with the bases full he knows what to do
Yes, it's good old reliable Frankie,
Frankie, Frankie, Frankie to close!
And the oldest established permanently kick-ass bullpen in the bigs!

There are juiced-up sluggers everywhere, everywhere
Lots of juiced-up sluggers everywhere
We don't care how much you prance
When you do your strikeout dance, no way
If we only had a rock-solid closer
Our Rolaids we could all throw away...

Why, it's good old reliable Frankie,
Frankie, Frankie, Frankie to close!
If you're looking for strikeouts, he'll furnish a few
Even with the bases full he knows what to do
Yes, it's good old reliable Frankie,
Frankie, Frankie, Frankie to close!
And the oldest established permanently kick-ass bullpen in the bigs!

[Next scene: August, at the ballpark. The Angels have a 5-3 lead on Minnesota. SCIOSCIA and FRANKIE are on the mound at the start of the ninth inning]

SCIOSCIA
Now, Frankie, I now you've been having some problems recently, but that's in the past. Go out and get 'em.

[FRANKIE begins pitching. From off stage we hear "Ball one! Ball two! Ball three! Ball four! Ball one! Ball two! Ball three! Ball four! HOME RUN!" The crowd begins to boo.]

FRANKIE (to the tune of "Don't Cry for me, Argentina")
Nobody boos in Venezuela
In Venezuela, they always love me
I play December, when I am fresher
Is that the difference?

SCOSCIA
Wrong musical, dammit!

[Next scene. A trio of laptop-toting BLOGGERS are talking about Frankie's problems]

BLOGGER #1
We all know Frankie's finished! He doesn't have it anymore! First thing he does every night is put guys on base!

BLOGGER #2
Too many pitches out of the strike zone!

BLOGGER #3
No guts!

BLOGGER #1
Fortunately, I know exactly what to do to fix the Angels' bullpen woes!

BLOGGERS 2 and 3
Holy samoleons! What a coincidence!

(Sung to the tune of Fugue for Tinhorns)

BLOGGER #1
I got the arm right here, his name is Eric Cyr
And there's a guy that says if the bases are clear
Can do, can do
This guy says that Cyr can do
If he says that Cyr can do
Can do, Can do

BLOGGER #2
The guy is Scotty Dunn, oh boy he's number one
He's got a whole lotta strikeouts for the Salt Lake club
Live arm, live arm
That Dunn's got a real live arm
And K's keep you out of harm
Live arm, live arm

BLOGGER #3
No, no, it's Escobar, the guy's a superstar
And he's got the stuff we need to get the team real far
Won't melt, won't melt
He's been around and he won't melt
Got a lot of innings under his belt
Won't melt, won't melt

BLOGGER #1
Eric Cyr...

BLOGGER #2
Scotty Dunn...

BLOGGER #3
Escobar...

ALL
I've got the arm...right...here!

[Next scene: Stoneman's office]

STONEMAN
You're all washed up, kid. Your mechanics are terrible - it says so on the Internet. Fortunately, we've got someone taking your spot who's never blown a single big-leave save: Jered Weaver!

FRANKIE
Wha? Wasn't he playing college ball a year ago?

STONEMAN
Oh, like that matters. Keep your trap shut, and maybe we'll let you pitch mop-up.

[Next scene: the ballpark the next night. The Angels have a 3-2 lead on the A's going into the bottom of the ninth]

SCIOSCIA
Okay, Weaver, let's see some of that no-blown-save magic out there. And remember - no bad pitches! Unless they swing and miss. Then they're okay.

WEAVER
*Gulp*

[He takes the mound]

WEAVER (to the tune of "I've Never Been in Love Before")

I've never closed a game before
Now all at once it's me
My God, look at the score

I've never closed a game before
I thought that I'd be used
When we were up by four

But this is noise that's all too loud and shrill
The ump I want to kill
Should I be on the hill

So please don't swing at anything I throw
I've really never closed
A game before

[The sound of many bats hitting many balls comes from offstage, as WEAVER ducks and dodges balls hit back up the middle. The crowd boos lustily and he runs off-stage, weeping]

[Next scene: the ballpark again. Frankie has been summoned to pitch the ninth in a tight game again]

SCIOSCIA
Look, Frankie, the Jered Weaver thing didn't go so well. Turns out there might actually be a difference between pitching college ball and pitching in the bigs. Who knew?

FRANKIE
That's great and all, but should I really be out here? Won't Stoneman be mad?

SCIOSCIA (chuckling)
Don't worry about him. I told him Allard Baird was on the phone wanting to trade us Mike Sweeney. Stoneman won't come out of hiding 'til November.

FRANKIE
Well, that's good, I guess. But...

SCIOSCIA
What? What's wrong?

FRANKIE
It's my confidence, Skip. It's been shattered!

SCIOSCIA
Shattered?

FRANKIE
That's right...
(to the tune of "Sit Down, You're Rockin' the Boat")

Last night I dreamed I was on the mound in New York
And by some chance, I had brought a ball along
So there I stood, and I shouted "let's get started!"
But the fans knew that something was wrong...

And the people all said "sit down! Sit down, you're fanning the flames!"
The people all said "sit down! Sit down, you're fanning the flames!"
"For the Yankees will make a comeback, send you to the showers in utter shame,
Sit down sit down, sit down, sit down, sit down you're fanning the flames!"

SCIOSCIA
You know, Frankie, if there's one thing I've learned through all this, it's that Sean can write some song parodies, but he really just phones it in when it comes to dialogue. But if there's two things I've learned, the second is...

(to the tune of "Marry the Man Today")
You go with the guys you got
And sometimes you just get stung
Pitchers run cold and hot
But you dance with the one you brung

Go with the guys you got
Their talent got you this far
Go with the guys you got
Minus illegal pine tar

Slowly introduce them to refinements
The strike zone...
A change-up...
Pitching to contact...
STOP!

Just go with the guys you got
Rather than random youngsters
Go with the guys you got
And worry 'bout it in the winter!

FRANKIE
Dios Mio! I feel the confidence returning!
[SCIOSCIA runs off stage right. FRANKIE winds and delivers. A stentorian voice booms "Steee-rike three!" The crowd noise crescendoes]

SHIELDS, DONNELLY, and the rest of the cast enter stage right, pick up FRANKIE and put him on their shoulders

ENSEMBLE
That's just good old reliable Frankie,
Frankie, Frankie, Frankie to close!
And the oldest established permanently kick-ass bullpen in the bigs!

BILLY BEANE rushes in from stage left
Wait! Wait! I've got a song, too! [clears throat]
Long-term tendencies subject to statistical analysis be a lady tonight...

CURTAIN

It's a race 

Posted 11:28 AM by Sean
So I went out of town for the weekend, and saw none of the Saturday or Sunday losses to Tampa Bay. And now, the sky has fallen yet again, we're all doomed, season over, etc., etc.

I have nothing to say about this that I haven't said before. You can keep the faith or try hedging your bets, so that if your team doesn't win you at least get the satisfaction of saying "I told you so." If that's your style, be my guest; I understand football season begins anon. For myself, I prefer at times like these to recall the words of Samuel Adams:

If you love wealth better than liberty, the tranquillity of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.

And in that spirit, I present to you the entire list of unbelievable, catastrophically improbable occurences that must transpire for the Angels to regain first place:

1. They have to win tonight.