This late word just in... 

Posted 8:55 PM by Sean
Word tonight is that Aaron Sele will start tomorrow night against the Twins.

Into the Dome 

Posted 2:41 PM by Sean
So now it appears that Escobar might not make his Saturday start after all, and Sele and Gregg appear to be the prominent candidates to spot start. Eckstein's return to the lineup is being targeted for this weekend.

Yesterday, the Angels jumped all over Tigers starter Nate Robertson, who gave up eight earned runs in three and a third innings pitched. Chone Figgins batted out of the leadoff spot again, going two for five with two runs scored, bringing his on-base percentage to .417 on the season, though that covers only 32 at-bats. His speed has really pumped up his slugging percentage as well; his fondness for taking the extra base means that three of his eleven hits are triples. He won't slug .594 all year, but it's nice to see for now.

Darin Erstad also had a good night, going two for six with four runs batted in and just one left on base. His OBP is still a comical .294, but his improvement over the course of the season has been noticable. At the current rate, he's in serious danger of qualifying as productive sometime in the next couple of weeks, and at this point I won't even dispute leaving him in the two-spot until we see where he tops out.

Meanwhile, Vlad Guerrero had his first bona fide superstar-type game, going four for five with a home run, hoisting his average almost 30 points to .322. Guerrero and Glaus are probably the scariest back-to-back in baseball right now; Glaus ranks third in the league for home runs, and Guerrero sixth.

Jarrod Washburn also deserves credit for pitching properly with a big lead. Wash threw 113 pitches in eight innings, which is reasonable, and went to only one three-ball count the entire game. He threw a total of ten pitches in the first two innings, including a three-pitch second. It was especially nice to see Washburn be effective after Colon's poor showing of the night before.

Tonight, we'll see what the offense comes up with against Carlos Silva, Minnesota's sinkerballing fourth starter, who's compiled a 3-0 record and a 4.50 ERA in four starts (against Detroit twice, Cleveland, and Kansas City). Silva's most recent start, against the Royals, was pretty impressive: 7 innings pitched, one earned run, no home runs, no walks, two strikeouts. Ordinarily, starting a sinkerballer in a dome is asking for trouble - those ground balls scoot through the infield on artificial turf - but, as noted earlier, the Twins' new turf hasn't fully compacted yet, and is a little spongier than normal. One of the keys for the Angels will be to stay out of double plays tonight: like any sinkerballer, Silva's grounder-to-flyball ratio is ludicrously high - 2.12 for his career. Since Scioscia likes to start the runner anyway, we may see a great deal of action on the basepaths tonight; look for steals or hit-and-run attempts on any count that's 1-1 or better.

As for Ramon Ortiz....aw, who knows? Minnesota's offense is right about in the middle of the league when it comes to home runs, so chances are he'll give up one or two. This game may come down to whether Ortiz can limit the damage that comes from them by keeping folks off the bases. If he can hold the Twins to a handful of runs, the bullpen is in good shape - Frankie Rodriguez didn't pitch at all against Detroit, and everyone except Shields got last night off. The Twins have been impressive at home this year (they're 9-3), but this should be a pretty well-fought series.

Turf Wars 

Posted 4:31 PM by Sean
Jeff at League of Angels points out that the injury-plagued Angels have much to fear from the next three days' worth of games at the Metrodome. The Twins have installed Field Turf this year, and, by all accounts, it's not quite finished settling yet. Even the Field Turf promotional literature is less than encouraging: "it is not necessarily to blame for any of the team's injuries?" Ye Gods.

Having caught a couple Twinkie games on TV this year (via ESPN, of course), I can say that the new stuff is a visual experience not to be missed. The dome has gone from looking like someone painted their concrete basement floor green to looking like someone covered their concrete basement floor with the stuff people use to make minature landscapes for their model trains.

Updates and Wanton Advice 

Posted 9:53 AM by Sean
Scioscia used both Sele and Gregg in last night's loss to the Tigers, and now comes word that, though indeed Escobar's next start will be pushed back to Saturday, Ramon Ortiz will be pitching in his stead.

At that same link we have the news that the Tustin Rhino's back owie is bad enough to put him on the DL for the first time in his career; this is retroactive to April 22, and he would be eligible to return on May 7. It would seem that he may have a pinched nerve in his neck, which, if indeed it was brought on by tissue swelling caused by sleeping on a new matress, is fairly easily treatable. If, on the other hand, it's due to bone spurs or disc problems, he may be looking at surgery. Right now, the smart money is on his returning sooner rather than later, but the results of his CT and MRI (presumably to be conducted today) will probably be a bigger story than anything that happens in tonight's game.

David Eckstein, meanwhile, looks to be recovering rapidly from his strained groin. Scioscia chose to keep Figgins in center field last night, but did bat him in the leadoff spot, where he went two for four with a run scored and a stolen base. When Eckstein returns - possibly sometime this weekend - Scioscia will have to choose between returning him to leadoff duties or giving Figgins a further chance to show what he can do up there. To continue my skylarking of yesterday, I think it might make sense to do something like the following, at least until Anderson returns:

Figgins - CF
Eckstein - SS
Guerrero - RF
Glaus - 3B
Erstad - 1B
Guillen - LF
Salmon - DH
Molina - C
Kennedy - 2B

The advantage of putting Eckstein in the two-spot is that he constantly puts the ball in play. Eckstein has, in the past, typically hit a lot of ground balls, and so there's some chance that this lineup would result in some double plays. But Figgins's speed should negate some of that, and I'd think that there would be a number of times when Figgins would get on base, steal second, and be moved to third by Eckstein, whereupon Guerrero and Glaus would have chances to move him in. More conservatively, Eckstein's contact skills could be put to use in a hit-and-run, which would have a reasonably high expectation of putting Figgins on second at the expense of an out. It's not like Eckstein would be pitched around.

Your 2005 Anaheim Angels 

Posted 4:41 PM by Sean
Rob Neyer thinks the Angels are likely to re-sign Troy Glaus:

Player: Troy Glaus
Team, Position: Angels, 3B
Replacement: Dallas McPherson (?)

Why the question mark after Dallas McPherson? Not because McPherson lacks the requisite talent. McPherson's blown through the minor leagues, and in many organizations he'd be knocking on the major league door. But McPherson's not going to move Glaus off third base this season, and there's not room for him in the outfield any time soon, either. Considering 1) how well Glaus is swinging the bat this season, 2) how poorly Tim Salmon is swinging the bat, and 3) how loose owner Arte Moreno is with the purse strings, it seems likely that Glaus will be signed to a long-term contract extension, with McPherson taking over as the Angels' DH, perhaps as soon as next year.

Eh, maybe. Salmon's contract runs through the 2005 season, and will be worth between 9.75 and 10 million next year. Glaus is having an excellent year - so far (what was that about sample size, Rob?) - but the Angels aren't going to make any decisions until they've seen most or all of his (and McPherson's) 2004. McPherson himself is currently posting a .288/.360/.455 line in Arkansas, so it's not inconceivable that he could spend most of '05 in Salt Lake instead of Anaheim, then split third base and DH duties with Glaus in '06.

Crisatunity knocks 

Posted 9:43 AM by Sean
Lisa: Look on the bright side, Dad. Did you know that the Chinese use the same word for "crisis" as they do for "opportunity?"

Homer: Yes! Crisatunity!

-- The Simpsons, Episode 2F08, "Fear of Flying"

The Angels may be in the midst of their own crisatunity moment here, with Garret Anderson sidelined indefinitely, David Eckstein coming out of last night's game with a strained groin, and Kelvim Escobar possibly needing an extra day or two of rest to recover from a split fingernail incurred in his last start.

Alfredo Amezaga is being mentioned as the most likely possibility to replace Eckstein. Amezaga is currently hitting somewhere south of .220 in triple-A, and seems very much in danger of losing his place on the Angels' depth chart, as middle-infield prospects Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood develop.

But why consider dipping into the farm system for a shortstop, when you've got a pretty servicable one in Chone Figgins, already up with the big club. And Figgins has been hitting pretty well in his latest stint, takes pitches, and runs like his ass was on fire. Sound like a leadoff hitter to you?

But wait, you say. Figgins is covering for Anderson in center! Yes, but he shouldn't be. The Angels have an all-universe center fielder also already up with the big club in Darin Erstad. Now, Erstad has a mini-groove going on at the plate, and has slowly improved from horrible to merely bad in terms of his season's offensive numbers. If Scioscia doesn't want to risk screwing with that by moving Erstad back to center - and, probably more realistically, screwing with Anderson's and Erstad's heads by blurring their roles on the team - there are guys down in Salt Lake who can play outfield, and are hitting a lot better than Amezaga:

Alex Pelaez - 25 for 69 (.362); .392 OBP, .449 SLG
Robb Quinlan - 25 for 75 (.333); .425 OBP, .507 SLG
Gary Johnson - 19 for 58 (.328); .381 OBP, .500 SLG
Adam "Angees" Riggs - 25 for 77; .384 OBP, .558 SLG

The Escobar situation is also interesting. The Angels have been somewhat coy as to whether he'll make his next scheduled start, which would be Friday's game in Minneapolis. It occurs to me that this is actually an excellent opportunity for Scioscia to audition Kevin Gregg, Scot Shields, or Aaron Sele with an eye towards putting them into the rotation full-time if Ramon Ortiz can't hold himself together. So even if Escobar is completely healed by Friday, we may get some talk about "not taking any chances" and how "the bullpen depth allows us to play it safe." To that end, it's interesting that Shields got 2.1 innings of work last night, throwing 43 pitches in the process. It's unlikely that Scioscia would have run him out there for so long if he were planning on using Shields to start on Friday, but it's hard to tell. Kevin Gregg hasn't pitched since the 23rd, and Aaron Sele hasn't pitched since the 20th.

Exactamente que es el deal? 

Posted 9:28 AM by Sean
So it turns out that In Demand isn't showing another Angels game on their "Extra Innings" package until...May 2. That's Sunday. I have no clue why - none of the Detroit series is being carried, and only the last of the Minnesota series is. I partially understand why the Twins games won't be on, since the Twins games are currently broadcast by Victory Sports, which, due to disputes over fees, isn't being carried by the major cable companies in Minnesota. But I'd think that, in situations like that, they'd just switch to the Anaheim feed.

Yeah, I know - they probably have a limit on how many games they can show from any given team's home broadcast. Whatever. All I know is I'm stuck listening via Gameday Audio until Sunday. Confidential to Rory Markus: that "just another halo victory" call was cute the first couple of times. No so much the last 100 or so.

Yes, Comerica Park is big, but no, Vlad, please don't swing any harder 

Posted 2:41 PM by Sean
Tonight, the Angels pass from the meat-grinder of the AL West to the supposedly slackier teams in the Central, beginning with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers, of course, have defied expectations so far by going 11-8. Nevertheless, getting out of the first round of intradivision play with a winning record is something of a coup for the Angels; since 2001, they're 83-110 against the West and 147-111 against the East and Central combined.

John Lackey will take the mound tonight to try to extend the Angels' four-game winning streak; Lackey's had a couple of decent starts in a row, and, though he's 0-3, is looking like he might be getting things together. His three starts look like this:

4/10 - 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
4/15 - 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
4/21 - 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

The only troubling thing seems to be that his strikeouts aren't going up; for Lackey, that could be a problem. Interestingly, almost no one in the Tigers' lineup has any significant experience with Lackey, a situation that normally favors the pitcher. In his last two starts, Lackey was successful in going after hitters; hopefully he'll work the hitters' unfamiliarity with him to his advantage.

Of course, the same is true for the Angels and the Tigers' starter, Nate Cornejo. David Eckstein has the most career at-bats against Cornejo of any Angel, with 11. Cornejo's been swatted around a bit in his last two starts, but the Tigers' offense is much improved and can probably bail him out if the Angels don't hit him hard.

The word on Garret Anderson seems to be that his back is still bothering him, and he's expected to sit out for at least another couple of games. Vladimir Guerrero was given Sunday off, as he's still having obvious knee problesms, but I'd guess he'll probably be back in tonight. I'm curious to see whether Scioscia will take advantage of Anderson's sabbatical by trying out Chone Figgins in the leadoff spot; with his speed and an on-base percentage of .429, he'd seem to be a natural there.

Don't look directly at it 

Posted 4:09 PM by Sean
I've been putting off writing about the Angels' sweep of the A's all day, mostly because I've got honest-to-God, you know, work to do, and partially because I didn't see yesterday's game thanks to the vagaries of the DirecTV broadcasting schedule. Obviously, the big story - aside from coming back from two games down in the standings to grab a piece of first place - was the lack of nuclear meltdown in yesterday's game by Ramon "Nofu" Ortiz, who pitched five innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out six, and walked three on 110 pitches. Lowering, I might add, his ERA to 9.77.

Perhaps most impressively, Ortiz started very poorly yet managed to right the ship. He walked the first two, and three in the first inning, but Bud Black managed to keep him in the game via what I can only assume was some righteous ass-chewing during a mound visit. Ortiz wound up walking no one else during those five innings, and his ball:strike ratio improved dramatically.

Even so, the underlying numbers continue to look bad. 110 pitches is a hell of a lot to throw in five innings, although the A's are a very patient lot. Ortiz was saved by the double play in both the first and the fifth innings, and the A's also stranded runners in scoring position in the fourth and second. Ultimately, this game won't do anything to change Scioscia's mind about Ortiz; if he thought that Ortiz could be a valuable part of the rotation before yesterday, he surely continues to think so now. But it didn't do much to change my mind about him, either.

I'll say this much: although I'm not reading too much into these last three games as regards the Angels' fortunes, if I were an A's fan I'd be a little bit worried that the offense has gotten so thin. The back of that rotation is looking vulnerable, and, with the offense 10th in runs scored and 10th in OPS, it's looking like they'll need near-perfect pitching to keep up. Now, when you've got Hudson, Mulder, and Zito, you've got near-perfect (starting) pitching, but they've got just no slack at all - if one of them gets injured, or even has an off year, the A's will have a hard time winning in other ways. The sweep seems to have exposed their weaknesses more than our strengths.

After noticing this, I also checked my zipper 

Posted 3:40 PM by Sean
That Tribune in the previous item ought, of course, to be the Times. Sheesh.

Just Doesn't Register 

Posted 10:51 AM by Sean
What's the story with the Orange County Register's Angels coverage? Specifically, why isn't there any? The last Angels stories on their site are covering Friday's game. Are they miffed by that big ol' Tribune sign on the right-field scoreboard?

But don't tell anyone east of the Rockies 

Posted 9:27 AM by Sean
Aaron Gleeman has noticed that Frankie Rodriguez remains a pretty good pitcher.

Epilady-in-waiting 

Posted 2:44 PM by Sean
Anybody want to chip in on getting Ben Weber a lifetime's supply of depilatories? Since shaving his head and beard on Tuesday, Weber's had two good appearances - a five-pitch inning on Tuesday night, and last night's 2+ innings of work in which he did give up an earned run. Weber pitched very well in the sixth, starting that inning in relief of Bartolo Colon, looked like he was struggling a bit in the seventh, and was out of gas in the eighth, when he was lifted in favor of Frankie Rodriguez. I was a little surprised to see Weber start the eighth, but the game wasn't in a save situation and doubless Scioscia didn't want to use Rodriguez for more than one inning to keep him available throughout this weekend's series with Oakland. Once Weber gave up the run, it became a question of getting the game to Percival, so Rodriguez came in, pitched like he does, and - for once - Percival got a relatively uneventful save. Sure, the tying run came to the plate, but only once. For Percival, that's downright sedate.

In any event, if Weber is truly returning to form, it's a big lift. The bullpen was thought to be the one area that didn't need changing in the off-season, but the fact remains that Weber and Donnelly both suddenly bloomed into effective relievers, and you have to keep an eye on guys like that. Weber's 34 now, and he certainly wouldn't be the first guy to have a couple of excellent years in his early thirties, only to fall of the face of the Earth. At 32, Donnelly's a slightly safer bet, but neither is automatic.

The Rangers did an excellent job of wearing Colon down, to the point where he threw 100 pitches in five innings of work and still only surrendered three runs. He pretty clearly didn't have his good stuff last night - I don't think I saw him throw that little tailing fastball he has at all (or maybe it just didn't tail), and only 60 of those 100 pitches were strikes. His velocity jumped around a lot on the fastball, from the low nineties to 99 mph, if the radar gun is to be believed. Still, that's what an ace does - even when he doesn't have his good stuff, he keeps his team in the game. Since the offense was able to put six up early, he was able to compensate by going after hitters, even when men were on base.

It was nice to see the offense get geared up again, even if it only lasted a few innings. Troy Glaus hit a no-doubter, and I'll say it again - he's going to have a monster season. He looks so much better at the plate than he did last year - I don't know if it's the eye surgery, the shoulder rehab, or a new brand of athletic supporter, but right now I'd be more afraid of him than of Guerrero if I was an AL pitcher. Garret Anderson and Tim Salmon both sat last night, GA because of back problems and Salmon due to a sore knee, but Chone Figgins and Jeff DaVanon stepped in nicely. DaVanon went 2 for 3 with a (probably fan-assisted) home run, while Figgins...

...well, Figgins poses something of a quandary. He does so many things that just seem dumb, like committing a two-base error by not getting in front of a ball, like last night, or executing a hit and run with his head down and getting caught off first on a line drive, like a few nights ago. But he's also clearly got some exceptional skills, most of which stem from his incredible speed. He tripled last night, and made it to third in what may have been the fastest time I've ever seen. He steals bases, obviously, but also uses his speed in the outfield; three batters after that two-base error he robbed Adrian Gonzalez of a double hit nearly to the wall (and took a somewhat, um, indirect route to the ball, I might add). He's 26, and likely entering the prime of his career. While the Angels have something of a logjam in the outfield, Figgins may have the inside track to replace Eckstein at short (and at the top of the batting order) next year, and could move back to center if the Angels let Jose Guillen walk after 2005 (with Anderson moving back to left). I suspect that Figgins's mistakes are at least partially due to lack of playing time, but he'll be an interesting one to watch as the season progresses.

Thanks 

Posted 11:49 AM by Sean
Yesterday was the highest-traffic day in the history of this blog. Thanks to everyone who stopped by, and to everyone who linked my post about Ramon Ortiz.

This blog does not enhance drug use, it just promotes it 

Posted 11:43 AM by Sean
There's a fairly intriguing article in today's L.A. Times by Bill Plaschke (hey, and Darin Erstad put good wood on a breaking ball last night!) about Angels' broadcaster Rex Hudler's life after his bust for marijuana possession last August.

Here's what I find most interesting:

For example, for the first time since he was a senior in high school, he no longer smokes marijuana.

Hudler says he never smoked much, rarely on the road, never before games, and would sometimes go an entire season without smoking. But during his 20-year pro career and five-year broadcasting stint with the Angels, he said dope was always somewhere in the background, even if only for a few tokes at night to help him sleep.

"It made me feel good, it relaxed me," he said. "It was easy, there was no real side effect. I knew it was wrong, but I liked it."

and

This work involves far more than 130 broadcasts. Hudler is on the front lines in the stadium concourses and the community.

He does so much charity work — particularly for Down syndrome, which afflicts his son Cade — that ordering him to do community service is like telling him to brush his teeth.

He has such an old-fashioned relationship with fans that when he sees someone who doesn't look happy, he gives them a baseball.

So here's a guy who's been smoking dope since he was a senior in high school. He was never addicted - "would sometimes go an entire season without smoking," in fact. He became a major league baseball player for parts of 14 seasons, including a 1996 campaign in which he batted .311 in 302 at-bats. He became a fan favorite as an announcer, does extensive charity work, is a devoted family man, and maintains a permanent optimism and energy.

See how marijuana will ruin your life?

I know, I know, off topic...

Posted 2:26 PM by Sean
No big update today, just a quick congratulations to John Lackey for putting people on notice that he'd like to be thought of as part of the top 4/5ths of the rotation, rather than part of the bottom 2/5ths. There's really not much to complain about your number four guy going six and two thirds against an offense like Texas's and giving up only three runs - it's surely not Lackey's fault that no one in the lineup could drive in runs against R.A. Dickey. Funnily, Texas appears to have two guys on their team with that name; the other one gave up nine earned runs in four and two-thirds innings to Oakland a few games ago, so I guess he'd better watch out he doesn't get sent back to the minors, huh?

Dumb jokes aside, I look at the guys in the Angels lineup, and I can't really bring myself to think that their current offensive woes are anything more than a temporary thing. This is still the club that absolutely destroyed the Mariners on opening weekend, and I think we'll probably start seeing that again in the near future.

...and the rose goes in front, big guy 

Posted 8:54 AM by Sean
Breaking news! Slate publishes a shocking revelation: the Angels' undervisors - the portion of the cap on the bottom of the brim - is black, rather than gray, the preferred choice of the other 29 major league teams!

More updates on this extremely important breaking news as developments warrant!

Wheels in motion 

Posted 12:51 PM by Sean
I've been thinking a lot this morning about what, if anything, a baseball team owes its fans. And it's a hard call - it's tough to say that the fans aren't owed something, some measure of respect for sticking out the tough times, ponying up cash for tickets, paying out in frustration and broken hearts over the years. At the same time, though, fans are fans for their own reasons - because rooting for a particular team fulfills in them some need to associate, or because they just like seeing a game played at its highest level. The relationship is symbiotic; to that extent neither side owes the other anything. To be sure, the fans' willingness to stick by their team makes certain that ballplayers, and everyone else associated with a Major League Baseball team, are able to live a lot more comfortably than they would otherwise. But that's ultimately because the demand for ultra-talented ballplayers far exceeds supply. If, for example, baseball's pay scale underwent a radical revision overnight, and the highest-paid player made, say, a million dollars per year, how many of them would quit baseball to engage in some other profession? Ignore the obvious arguments about how so-and-so would quit out of protest to make more money in broadcasting or endorsements - those kinds of options are made possible only because they made so much money playing baseball already. The fact is that if fans suddenly stopped caring about baseball, and the average player's salary was more along the lines of a mechanic or a teacher, quite a few of them would still be taking the field. For some, that's because it's the only thing they know how to do really well, but most, I suspect, would do so because it's just a really good job. Sure, there's a lot of travel, and time away from your family. But you also get half the year off, and it's a game, for Christ's sake. Dolts wearing "Baseball is Life" shirts notwithstanding, it's a game. The greatest game ever invented, but a game.

But if a team doesn't owe a fan anything, precisely, it still relies on its fans to keep it competitive. Take the Montreal Expos, for example, who must perpetually discard its best players just to stay afloat financially, because they can't rely on their fan base to support them through the lean times, and they can't risk paying their good players without a guarantee of success. The business of baseball at the individual team level requires that the fan be kept happy.

Normally, what keeps the fan happy is the team accomplishing its goal: winning. But sometimes - hell, all the time, really - the mechanism for that accomplishment is, to a greater or lesser extent, a subject of contention. On one side we have the team, personified in various circumstances by the manager, coaches, general manager, owner, and others, who makes the ultimate decisions regarding strategy and tactics. On the other are various groups of fans, whose opinions shift in both nature and prominence. Since the decision-making function is held entirely by the former group (properly, of course, DWL), when there's a sufficiently large disagreement between the two the fans react in the only ways available to them. First, they voice their frustrations - either by booing, writing scathing letters to the editor of the local paper, or, now, blogging about it. If a team's fortunes are sufficiently bad for a sufficiently long time, however, and the fans are frustrated beyond endurance, some of them simply stop being fans. Like investors sick of watching a stock go into the tank - or Arte Moreno sick of watching Kevin Appier pitch - they cut their losses and move on to something else.

Like I said, the power to make short-term decisions on the level we're talking about is really one-sided. A determined manager will put that 0-for-24 righty in against left-handed relievers over and over again no matter how lustily the crowd boos, and there's nothing they can do about it except boo harder, or quit showing up for games. But, like all disagreements between parties where the decisions are being made by one side alone, a simple explanation can go a long way. Say you give your unemployed brother-in-law fifty grand to start a business marketing a meat-based tofu substitute called "Nofu." And say that after two months he's sold $6.50 worth of product, all to the Army for use in the Guantanamo Bay confinement camp. You'd be a little annoyed, right? But what if your brother-in-law showed you evidence that a new species of bean curd weevil was poised to wipe out traditional sources of tofu, and that everyone who loves the freakish texture and disturbing cubism of tofu will be forced to buy his product at a premium in a month?

Which brings me - Jesus, finally - to Ramon Ortiz.

I can't add a great deal to what?s being said on the other Angels blogs about Ortiz's performance last night. To say that it was terrible is true. To say that it was a vindication of my earlier comments about the importance of first-pitch strikes is also, sadly, true. But at this point, things have gone beyond recriminations about poor performances, or gratuitous credit-taking for pointing out the obvious. Ramon Ortiz made me feel something last night that I haven't experienced as a baseball fan in a long time. He made me feel embarrassed to be an Angels fan.

Let me make one thing clear before proceeding: I will always be an Angels fan, for so long as this franchise exists. Such is fate; this part of me was instilled when I was very young. There is no danger that I will stop caring about this team's fortunes. But Ramon Ortiz proved last night that there's still a part of me that remembers very well the days when John Farrell took the mound with some regularity, days that I was literally afraid to read the box scores. Oh, sure, there have been times since then that I've winced because of something or other (I mean, come on - Bengie Molina was thrown out at first last night on a ball the shortstop had fly out of his hand and fall to the ground; like one of the Rangers announcers said, Ichiro would have been on second base). But that kind of thing is transitory; this is a deep and abiding wound of the psyche. Ramon Ortiz, I'm being told, is the best we can throw out there.

Whether that's true or not is a subject of some discussion. Certainly the fans seem to have seen enough of him; my small but smart contingent of colleagues in the Angels blogosphere are united in their desire to see Ortiz replaced in the rotation with Kevin Gregg, Scot Shields, or Aaron Sele. A thread on the Angels' web site's message boards, started by someone defending Ortiz, has drawn only derisive responses from the denizens thereof. And most telling of all, the fans last night were booing Ortiz, and booing him loudly. There was a time when no one at Angels games cared enough to boo, but expectations have been raised, and the fans are not going to put up with being embarrassed again (at least not in silence). Speaking for myself, I'll confess that I turned the game off shortly after Kevin Gregg replaced Ortiz. Those innings from the top of the third to the end of the game were the first I've missed this year. And I missed them not because of a scheduling conflict, or because I needed the sleep (though I did), but because I had reached my disgust threshold.

My question, and the question of everyone in my situation, is obviously this: where is Scioscia's disgust threshold? Certainly he was quick enough with the hook last night; Ortiz started very well, but once he began his death spiral he received very little opportunity to pull out of it. In reading Scioscia's comments in today?s L.A. Times, however, I'm more than a little disturbed as the prospect of seeing him again in five days.

Ortiz earned a starting job despite his rocky spring (2-0, 6.66 earned-run average) because Scioscia liked the way he was throwing and thought Ortiz's track record - a 44-33 record over the last three seasons - warranted the final spot over veteran right-hander Aaron Sele.

This is an accurate depiction of Scioscia's rationale for putting Ortiz in the rotation. I apologize for not finding a quote from the man himself, but on several occasions he did give that reason: Ortiz won 16 games last year, so he must be good. But wins, as any of the new breed of baseball statisticians will tell you (at length, and snottily) are one of the least telling measures of a pitcher's effectiveness. In Ortiz's case last year, they were the result of a lot of run support - more than seven runs per game - and despite his effectiveness as a pitcher. His ERA was 5.20, up from 3.77 in 2002. He surrendered 209 hits in 180 innings pitched, as opposed to 188 hits in 217.1 innings pitched in 2002. His pitches per at bat went up, his pitches per start went down; his opponent's average, opponent's OBP, and opponent's slugging all went up, his strikeouts per nine innings and strikeouts per walk both went down. By nearly every objective measure, Ramon Ortiz was a worse pitcher in 2003 than he was in 2002. Except one. Except wins. In 2002, Ramon Ortiz won 15 games.

So I guess Ramon Ortiz was better in 2003 than he was in 2002, huh?

More from the Times, this actually a Scioscia quote:

"Everyone is aware of those options [replacing Ortiz with Gregg, Shields, or Sele --Sean], but what's best for our club is to give these guys the opportunity to see what direction they're going to go," Scioscia said. "Ramon is going to take the ball again."

"We feel the guys who are struggling in our rotation now are going to be real shining spots for us as the season goes on. We're going to let it play out until we feel they're not where they need to be. But it's far too early for that."

As I mentioned before, it's only too early to make that decision if you start looking at the data compiled from the beginning of the 2004 season forward. But these starts don't exist in a vacuum; they exist continuous with his 2003 season and the spring training starts he made, in which he gave no indication - at least statistically - that he's any better than what we've seen.

That's not my main complaint, though. I have enormous respect for Mike Scioscia as a manager, and I absolutely believe that he has earned some amount of trust when it comes to making these kinds of decisions. That said, I also believe in one of the fundamental tenets of argumentation: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If someone tells you they can jump sixty feet into the air, you're going to demand to see it for yourself, or to see notarized affidavits from the Pope and Judge Judy. Simply saying that "we feel the guys who are struggling in our rotation now are going to be real shining spots for us as the season goes on" just doesn't overcome what we've seen with our own eyes over the course of the last year. If Scioscia were to say "look, Ramon's had some lousy outings, but we feel he can be effective because..." and here my imagination fails me, because I can't come up with any plausible reason. But if Scioscia could somehow fill in that blank with a reason that made sense, I'd probably believe him. At this point, however, what I'm hearing is that if all the kids in the world clap their hands, and really, truly believe in fairies, Tinkerbell will come back to life.

It would be really, really swell to have the old Ramon Ortiz back. His 2002 was, without question, an excellent season, one that no one would dispute was integral to the Angels' championship run. If he could be even close to that effective, it would be worth all the frustration - even the embarrassment - of watching him run off the rails in his first few starts; I'd be the first to apologize for calling for his release (and yes, that's what I think they should do), and I'd probably even be a little ashamed about it.

There's just one problem.

There's no such thing as fairies.

Keep your hands and feet inside the car at all times 

Posted 2:53 PM by Sean
After Seattle's 14-inning victory over Oakland last night - on a balk, for God's sake - the A.L. West standings got a little bit tighter. Oakland's still out in front at 8-5, but the Angels are a game back, Texas is two back, and Seattle is three back. Get used to it.

After their day off yesterday, the Angels start a three-game home series with the Rangers tonight. Heading to the mound tonight is, of course, Ramon "You Doormat, You" Ortiz, who made his previous start against Texas into an audition, assuming someone in the stadium was looking for someone to play the role of Dresden in a World War II documentary. The day off theoretically gave Scioscia a chance to skip Ortiz, but ultimately I think maintaining the rotation right now is a good call - after all, if he's going to melt down completely, I'd rather know it sooner as opposed to later.

Now, Ortiz did have a decent start against Seattle his last time out, but it's fairly obvious, even at this early date, that Seattle's lineup lakes a certain...potency. The Texas lineup differs from the Seattle lineup in much the same way a doberman differs from a shih tzu. An old, wheezing, arthritic shih tzu. And if the Angels are going to win this one, they're going to need Ortiz to throw those first-pitch strikes, and avoid situations in which the Rangers know he has to come over the plate.

The offense is also going to have to help out. There's no question that they were pretty ineffective against Hudson and Zito, but...well, that's Hudson and Zito. Tonight, they'll be up against Kenny Rogers, and that's a whole 'nother bucket of chicken. The Angels got to Rogers for six runs in six innings ten days ago - a game Rogers won. All six of the Angels runs came in the fourth inning, and account for two-thirds of his runs given up this season - in his other two starts (both against the A's), Rogers has given up a total of three runs.

A truce while we bury our dead 

Posted 11:20 AM by Sean
The Angels have today off, so I'm not going to say much. Dropping two out of three to your major division rival at home ain't much to put one in a pontificatin' mood. I thought Colon and Escobar looked fine, all things considered, and, though Washburn's pitch efficiency was horrendous, he did, you know, win. So my sky-is-falling fears are, currently:

1. That Vlad Guerrero will continue to swing at anything at all, including the NASA's new Gravity Probe B as it passes overhead.

2. That Darin Erstad will continue to swing at outside breaking pitches, which he cannot hit.

3. That Jose Guillen's head will spontaneously explode if he doesn't hit a home run soon.

4. That Ben Weber is some sort of Samson-in-reverse, growing steadily worse as his beard lengthens.

5. That Frankie Rodriguez will prove unable to throw 200 innings out of the bullpen.

6. That the supply of batteries for Aaron Sele's Game Boy will run out soon.

For now, that is all.

Well, that's interesting 

Posted 6:27 PM by Sean
ESPN is offering something new - "Stat Packs" in advance of each game, .pdf files that contain information on each team like hitting and pitching statistics, trivia, notes, etc. It's not as well put together as the media notes released by the individual clubs, but whaddaya want for nothin'? A rubber biscuit?

The Stat Packs are available at the ESPN scoreboard page.

Hearts and flowers 

Posted 3:38 PM by Sean
Jim Caple has some nice things to say about the Angels in general, and Guerrero in particular.

Ooooh, all that vegetable fiber has made them so clever! 

Posted 12:45 PM by Sean
Via ESPN:

People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) had a 12-word statement engraved in an 8-by-8 inch brick -- the commemorative bricks were offered by the Padres as part of a permanent display surrounding the team's new $411 million stadium.

The message reads, "Break Open Your Cold Ones! Toast The Padres! Enjoy This Championship Organization!" The first letter of every word spells "BOYCOTT PETCO."

I envision throngs of Padres fans descending on Inexplicably Capitalized Kibble Merchant Park, only to turn back in horror as they realize the true meaning of the secret message encoded on one of the bricks. The Padres, PETCO, and indeed the entire pet industry are doubtless quaking in their sealskin boots.

Rassum-frassum! 

Posted 12:20 PM by Sean
Dammit, I just lost a fairly lengthy post about last night's game, just when I have no time to reconstruct it. So here's the dime version:

Lackey - excellent job getting that first strike; 21 of 24! The wheels came off in the sixth, possibly due to loss of velocity and/or command (fastball was around 88 mph by then). Layne blew a call at first, but isn't responsible for Chone Figgins' or Garret Anderson's bad defense. Anderson's throw was so far over Halter's head it was quoting Schopenhauer.

Ryan Franklin pitched beautifully. Hudson and Mulder must be thinking pretty hard about how the Angels had a hard time with that breaking ball.

Glaus is said to be returning to the lineup tonight. Assuming the Molina brothers continue to trade starts, we may see the Angels' regular lineup for the first time this season on Saturday.

The full version was much smarter. I promise.

Okay, now sit back down 

Posted 11:45 PM by Sean
...and now I don't feel so sorry for Chone Figgins anymore.

John Lackey, destiny and Ramon Ortiz would like to include you in a conference call 

Posted 5:10 PM by Sean
The beat goes on tonight, with John Lackey looking to redeem himself. It's pretty sad when you're worried about suffering in comparison to a guy because you can't match his 5.2 inning, 4 earned run start, but there it is - Lackey needs to pull a Ramon and show us that he can, in fact, be an average pitcher.

The usual suspects in the Mariners' lineup have had success against him in the past: Bret Boone, who's 8-for-18 against him lifetime, Edgar Martinez, who's 5-for-14, and...well, Randy Winn, who's 4-for-13. It's possible Winn will return to the two-spot tonight, as Olerud is 5 for 19 against him.

The Mariners, meanwhile, will give the ball to Ryan Franklin, who's 31 years old but only caught on as a full-time player in 2002. After spending most of his time as a slightly better than average reliever, he was converted into a starter last year and started 32 games for Seattle, compiling an impressive 3.57 ERA. The Mariners didn't give him much in the way of run support, though - they scored two or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 losses - and he became the only pitcher in the top 10 in ERA with a losing record.

Franklin proved tough to slap around last year, both in general and for the Angels specifically. He left before the sixth inning only once in his 32 starts in 2003, while his lifetime ERA against Anaheim is 2.59 in 59.0 innings. His principal weakness is the longball, however, and this is a team that can exploit that - Franklin gave up 34 homers in 2003, tied with our very own Jarrod Washburn for the league lead. If Eckstein and Erstad can set the table, the Angels may be able to do some serious damage with the middle of the lineup. Eckstein hasn't hit him well in the past - he's 2 for 26 - but Erstad is 6 for 15 against him, and Anderson 10 for 24.

Once past Franklin, the Angels will have the advantage of facing a fairly depleted Seattle bullpen. Shigetoshi Hasegawa went two innings last night, and Julio Mateo made relatively brief appearances both last night and Tuesday - either of them could pitch, I suppse, but it's more likely that Ron Villone or newcomer J.J. Putz (that's pronounced "Poots," by the way; he was recalled from Triple-A before last night's game) would be Bob Melvin's first resort, unless Mike Myers gets the call to pitch to a lefty. Kevin Jarvis seems to be on the brink of becoming a nonentity in that bullpen.

For his own part, Lackey has a history of pitching well to the Mariners himself, putting up a 3.22 ERA in 36.1 innings lifetime and a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings in 2003. His most recent start against Seattle, encouragingly enough, resulted in one of his two career complete game shutouts. That was on September 24, in Anaheim: 9.0 IP, 5 hits, no runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts. If Scioscia needs the bullpen this time, however, both Ben Weber and Kevin Gregg should be available for set-up duties, while Aaron Sele hasn't pitched since Friday. It's probably not likely that Scot Shields will be called upon, as he's thrown 36 pitches in the last two days, and I suspect that Frankie Rodriguez - who's thrown 39 in two days - will be used only in an emergency. It will be interesting to see how Scioscia uses Weber and Gregg - Weber's given up earned runs in each of his three appearances so far this year, including three in 0.2 innings on Monday, while Kevin Gregg has five scoreless innings under his belt, compiled in four appearances. I suspect we'll see Gregg against the heart of the Seattle lineup in the late innings, unless the Angels have a big lead and Weber or Lackey are cruising.

Recriminate THIS! 

Posted 12:52 PM by Sean
As a coda to the discussion of Garret Anderson's new contract, comes now Magglio Ordonez, seeking a five-year contract from the Chicago White Sox at $14 million per season. I don't intend to compare Anderson and Ordonez, because Ordonez is clearly the more valuable - he's younger, and just plain better, than Anderson. Is he $2 million a year better? Eh, maybe (and of course we have no idea what Ordonez will actually end up getting). But I still believe that part of the value of Anderson's contract is that it takes the issue off the table - who knows if Ordonez, or anyone else, for that matter - will be available during free agency?

That said, it's a good bet that there's at least one guy who will be available, and would you rather see that $2 million spent upgrading from Anderson to Ordonez, or as part of a package that upgrades from Eckstein to Garciaparra? You know, a couple million here, a couple million there, and pretty soon you're talking real money...

Update: Mike's Baseball Rants has an excellent discussion of why he thinks GA's not worth the money. As far as I can see, the divergence between his opinion and mine is that I weigh Anderson's more recent seasons more heavily than I weigh, say, 1995 and 1996.

Update! Part Deux!: Rob emails to rightly take me to task for beliving the Garciaparra hype. In fact, his home/road splits tell the story of a guy who's making a career out of banging doubles off the Green Monster. I stand by the larger point - the Angels are still going to have to make decisions at short and third, as well as finding a couple of pitchers, and dealing with Anderson now is one less ball in the air then - but Nomar? No thanks.

The world needs fourth starters, too 

Posted 11:58 AM by Sean
Thanks to MLB's Extra Innings package and ReplayTV, I've been fortunate enough to see all nine of the Angels' games this year despite living just slightly out of market. So it's with a fair bit of certainty that I say that last night's 6-5 victory over Seattle was easily the tensest set-to of this young season. And it produced a lot of stuff to talk about, so you might want to get a sandwich and a beer before reading any further.

It seems appropriate to start with Ramon Ortiz, who made a noticable improvement - how could he not - over his last start, a Good Friday scourging the likes of which had Mel Gibson muttering about international gross and points off the back end. Ortiz's final line - 5.2 innings pitched, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K - is nothing to holla back at, but, well...Ramon Ortiz went five and two-thirds! For a number four guy (well, number five, really), that's about what you shoot for - someone who will keep you in the game. Ortiz seemed a little bit calmer than he usually is, particularly in the first three or four innings, and was working noticably faster than usual. That's a good sign.

What Ortiz's start really exemplified, however, was the importance of the first-pitch strike. Let's talk some numbers for a minute: Ortiz faced 26 batters. Of those, he started 14 with a ball, and 12 with a strike.

Of the 14 batters he started with a ball: six made outs (43%). Three singled, three walked, and two doubled. That's a rate of 0.714 total bases per batter faced.

Of the 12 batters he started with a strike: nine made outs (75%). One singled, one doubled, and one homered. That's a rate of 0.583 total bases per batter faced.

One of the things Ortiz seems to need help with is the ability to recognize and adapt to an opposing lineup's approach to him. The Mariners brought their patience hats to the plate last night - of those 26 hitters, only three swung at the first pitch. Of the 14 who took a first-pitch ball, only three swung at the next pitch, while five looked at strike one. And yet Ortiz still threw more balls than strikes on the first pitch. If Bud Black can make him see the importance of that first-pitch strike, Ortiz may have a chance to contribute to this team. I am not, however, hopeful.

Bob Melvin shook up his lineup a little for the game - well, as much as you can shake up a lineup when you're using your sixth in eight games - putting John Olerud in the two-spot to take advantage of his lifetime .306 batting average against Ortiz, and flipping Boone and Martinez to maximize the chances of Boone hitting with men on. Boone did eventually homer with Martinez on, but otherwise Ortiz limited the damage done by Boone, getting him to line out to Kennedy in the first and fly out to Salmon in the fifth.

For Scioscia's part, he rested Glaus and Molina again, and again moved Guerrero to DH. Unfortunately, for the second straight night Guerrero had to run the bases on close plays, and his knee is clearly bothering him. The Times and the Register attribute, respectively, the following two bits of wisdom to Scioscia this morning:

Manager Mike Scioscia said Guerrero could heal more quickly if the Angels gave him several days off, but they consider his bat too valuable to take out of their lineup. Guerrero probably will continue to serve as the designated hitter for the next few games.

* * *

But Scioscia didn't want to rush him. Scioscia said Molina could play back-to-back games this weekend in Oakland.

"I think he understands the nature of hamstring injuries," Scioscia said. "I think he understands the fact that you'd like to wait a day or two longer than you think they're ready.

"It's the same thing with Troy Glaus. He's feeling a lot better but he's not at the point where he feels comfortable enough to go out there and do the things that he would need to do to play. He made a lot of improvement from (Tuesday)."

Uhhhhhhmmmmmm....

In any event, Chone Figgins ran for Guerrero in the bottom of the ninth, and more or less gave the finger to the "stolen bases are overrated" crowd by winning the game with his speed. That sixth run was scored on a walk, two stolen bases, and a sac fly, and, though I feel bad for Figgins, who would obviously like a start or two, that's a pretty sweet arrow to have in your quiver.

Generally speaking, the offense looked much better against Freddy Garcia, although I'm still debating whether that was an improvement in the offense or a worse outing by Garcia. I'm leaning towards the latter, to tell the truth - he seemed to be putting the ball across the plate a lot more tonight, rather than throwing those breaking pitches off the outside corner that flummoxed the Angels last week. This is a lineup that will kill you if you don't bring your good stuff, though, and the Angels did a great job of taking the advantage Garcia was offering them. It was nice to see Tim Salmon finally have his first good night of the year, hitting three balls with authority. After starting the season 1-for-20, he's gone 7 for his last 14, including three doubles and a home run in his last three games. Of course, he very nearly wasted that performance by popping up with the bases loaded and nobody out - on the first pitch, after Hasegawa had just thrown four straight balls to Guillen - but all's well that ends well. To be honest, I think we've barely scratched the surface of what this lineup can do - Scioscia still hasn't been able to put his "everyday" lineup in effect - and I don't think 900+ runs is out of the question this year, although it'll be a chore considering they'll be facing Oakland 19 times.

As for Percival's blown save...well, he'll do that sometimes. He's always had a tendency to put guys on base, but usually wriggles out of it with the save. To be honest, the Angels were pretty lucky to hold the Mariners to a tie in the top of the ninth, just as the Mariners were pretty lucky to stop that bases-loaded, no-out situation in the seventh. But the handwriting's on the wall for Percival, who's in his last year with the Angels, and I'm not going to sweat this one until I see a couple more like it.

Ramon Ortiz, your destiny is calling 

Posted 5:37 PM by Sean
Well, there's just no avoiding it. In a few hours, I'm going to have to sit down - probably with my good friend, Jim Beam - and watch Ramon Ortiz pitch against Freddy Garcia.

You'll remember that Garcia more or less dominated the Angels for seven innings last week, holding the halos scoreless on four hits while striking out seven, and it was only by the grace of God and Bob Melvin's desire to keep Garcia's pitch count down that they finally got to go do that voodoo that they do so well in the ninth. Garcia has historically had the Angels all figured out - a 2.24 ERA in 17 career starts, and a 1.17 ERA against them in 2003 - though in fact Ortiz has actually been decent against the Mariners, too (3.39 ERA in 12 starts for his career, 4.01 ERA against them in 2003 - curiously, all four of his 2003 starts came against Jamie Moyer). Realistically, the Angels will be in good shape if they can keep this one close until the late innings. Seattle's bullpen has been notso-hotso so far, posting a 6.95 ERA in 22 innings of work. The guy we want to see in particular is Kevin Jarvis, who's appeared three times and put his first batter on base on each occasion. Everyone in the Seattle bullpen is probably available to work tonight, particularly Jarvis and Shigetoshi Hasegawa, neither of whom have pitched since Sunday (nor has Eddie Guardado, for that matter, but he's unlikely to be used except as a closer).

It's hard to know exactly how thin the ice under Ortiz is as far as Scioscia is concerned. It seems obvious to me that Ortiz, who's thirty years old and is in his sixth major league season, has a tendency to go to pieces on the mound that he's just not going to shake. But it seemed equally obvious to me that Sele had beaten him out for the fifth starter position in the spring, so Scioscia and Bud Black are obviously looking at a different data set than I am. Tonight, Ortiz will absolutely have to go after Ichiro and Winn at the top of the order, neither of whom have been especially successful against him the past, because Bret Boone just kills Ortiz, and Ortiz gives up a ton of home runs. If Ortiz can limit the damage by working to Boone with the bases empty, that'll go a long way towards keeping the Angels in this one. If he's erratic at the top of the lineup, though, me and Jim Beam are gonna get real cozy.

Trading in hemoglobin shares to rise sharply 

Posted 11:36 AM by Sean
Also reported on ESPN last night, and at the Times, is the fact that Brendan Donnelly has been cleared to resume light exercises. If all goes well, he should begin more strenuous exercise in a week.

Meanwhile, both Troy Glaus and Vlad Guerrero are banged up a little; Glaus sat out his second straight game with a "tweaked" hamstring, whatever the hell that means, and Guerrero DH'ed last night because of a sore knee. The latter was pretty evident after the game; ESPN showed a shot of him trotting onto the field to slap hands with his teammates, and he was clearly favoring his right leg. Guerrero scored from first on a Jose Guillen double and looked like he was running as flat-out as he could, so I suspect he probably will spend a good deal of time in the trainer's room today making sure he didn't really hurt himself, but he was all smiles after the game, despite looking like the love child of Buckwheat and Joe Cocker (yeah, I know: they're just dating).

Meanwhile, Bengie Molina made his long-awaited return last night. Having apparently lost interest in running the bases aggressively, Molina deposited a two-run shot in the bullpen and trotted around them instead. After a few innings of anemic offense and unsteady pitching, the Angels bounced back from a 4-0 deficit with a barrage of hits to score seven unanswered runs. Frankie Rodriguez pitched brilliantly in relief, identifying a spot low and just on the outside of the strike zone that was being called a strike by home plate umpire Jerry Meals, and returning to it again and again to get ahead of hitters. Troy Percival got his second save in as many appearances, Vlad Guerrero hit another home run, and Jose Guillen pitched in with that double down the third-base line to score the Angels' fifth and sixth runs, taking third on the throw to set up his own run scored when Tim Salmon grounded to third.

But what I really want to do right now is eat a little crow. And I mean a little, because it's still so early. However, the incredibly early, laughably-small-sample-size returns on Darin Erstad are looking more encouraging these days, and not just because he was three-for-three last night (and was on base all four times he came to the plate). If you'll recall, a few days ago I mentioned that Erstad was, unlike Salmon, hitting the ball hard quite a bit. That's still true, and Erstad had a terrific at-bat the other day against Texas's Colby Lewis, in which he eventually doubled. After Anderson's 0-for-4 performance last night, Erstad is now the only Angel to have a hit in every game. Granted, before last night it was exactly one hit in every game, making his average pretty crappy - but if he continues to make good contact the hits are going to start to fall. He still has too many strikeouts - eight, so far - and not enough walks - two - but six of his eight K's were in the first four games, and both of his walks were in the most recent two games. Like I said, it's still too early to tell what's going on - all I can say is that it bears watching. This will not, however, stop me from claiming credit for being the first on the story if Erstad has a good year.

Details, details... 

Posted 10:42 AM by Sean
ESPN reported during last night's broadcast of the Angels-Mariners game that the extension signed by the Tustin Rhino - and yes, I'm going to keep pushing that until it shows up in the Baseball Encyclopedia - is worth $48 million over four years. The Times has details here. The contract includes a $3 million signing bonus, $9 million in 2005, $10 million in 2006, $11 million in 2007, and $12 million in 2008. You'll note, of course, that this adds up to $45 million; the extra $3 million is the buyout on his contract if the club declines to exercise their option for 2009. If they do pick Anderson up for the extra year, it'll cost them a cool $14 million, which, to be fair, will probably be the cost of two breakfast taquitos and a Coke at 7-Eleven by then. Not that I'd know; the indiscriminate halohagiography at this site is fueled by the exclusive breakfast of Purgatory Online, coffee and Jolly Ranchers.

Anyway, the initial reaction to the Anderson signing seems to be mutedly negative. Rob at 6-4-2 thinks GA rooked Arte Moreno, a proposition I have some trouble believing; Richard at the Pearly Gates says that it's more than he'd give Anderson (yeah, me too - if I gave GA $12 million a year I'd probably have to sell the other Porsche), but concedes that it's probably around market value, and essentially the same position is taken at Chronicles of the Lads.

The U.S.S. Mariner is more sharply critical, making comparisons between Moreno and noted Texas dimwit Tom Hicks. And no doubt we can look forward to a good deal of pooh-poohing from ESPN's Rob Neyer, though in fact he may want to wipe off his chin first.

Me? I think this is actually a pretty good deal. Looking at the yearly numbers, we have a base salary of $9 million next year, with a $1 million increase per year. The signing bonus and the buyout aren't chump change, but they'd probably be the same for any decent free-agent outfielder the Angels would sign in Anderson's place. In particular, given the pace of payroll expansion, that $12 million in 2008 is probably going to be the functional equivalent of 2005's $9 million. Statistically speaking, Anderson may be expected to decline starting either this year or next year, but that's something of an open question. U.S.S. Mariner, for example, argues:

However, he's been overrated for most of his career, and sports a not-star-like .328 career on base percentage. As recently as 2001, he was getting on base just 31 percent of the time, and that isn't an acceptable number for anyone but a middle of the diamond player with terrific defensive abilities, and even then, you don't pay those types a lot of money.

Ah, but how convenient, that "most of his career" and "as recently as 2001" language, as if the rest - the most recent - of the evidence was inconsequential. Anderson's batting average and on-base percentage have actually improved every year since 2000; in 2002 and 2003 his OPS was 130 and 137% of the league average, respectively. It's true that he's improved from "good" to "outstanding," but the improvement is no illusion, and certainly one could argue that his on-base numbers have historically been depressed because, after all, his job isn't to set the table - it's to drive guys in. Argue with that philosophy all you want, but Scioscia's at the helm, and he seems to know what he's doing. With Jose Guillen and a resurgent Troy Glaus hitting behind him, we'll likely see Anderson's OBP remain at levels comparable to the last two years, in which he bested the league average AND drove in well over 100 runs.

So what does this mean for the future? Is there any guarantee that Anderson will remain as productive as he currently is for the next four years? Well, what am I, Kreskin? Of course it's a gamble - but I think it's a good one. Consider the alternatives: the Angels' farm system, though stocked with infielders and (to a lesser extent) pitchers, lacks many outfield prospects. Nick Gorneault may reasonably be expected to contend for a spot next year, but that's about it - and even if he does, Jose Guillen's contract expires after 2005, so the Angels would need to either re-sign Guillen or pursue a free agent anyway. Is there a free agent comparable to Anderson coming onto the market this winter? Honestly, I don't know - if you've got a candidate, email me - but it also seems likely that sealing up the outfield now will allow Moreno and Stoneman to focus on some other pressing issues in the off-season - namely, deciding Troy Glaus, Jarrod Washburn, and David Eckstein's fates.

Waiting in the wings 

Posted 4:17 PM by Sean
ESPN's Down on the Farm profiles Casey Kotchman today. Kotchman is currently at Double-A Arkansas, along with most of the organization's other young studs. The Travs are currently 4-1, after losing their first game last night in fourteen innings. The Angels' Triple-A team in Salt Lake, meanwhile, is also 4-1.

Anderson News Flash! Uh, make that "Anderson News Cash!" 

Posted 2:08 PM by Sean
Garret Anderson signed a four-year contract extension today, with a club option for a fifth year. The Angels never disclose the financial terms of contracts, but we can safely assume it's in the $11-$13 million per year range.

Arte Moreno, you've said all along that signing Anderson was a priority, and now you've gone and done it. Congratulations, sir, and thank you.

Molina News Flash! Uh, make that "Molina News Plod!" 

Posted 12:11 PM by Sean
From our friend at the Times:

Catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined because of a slight strain of his left hamstring, took batting practice, ran the bases aggressively and was also put through some situational base-running drills before the game. Scioscia said as long as Molina recovered from the workout sufficiently, he would start tonight.

I just don't know...I'd like to believe it, but I've been burned so many times before...

Sean will attempt to type aggressively today, and could return to action as soon as [tomorrow's date] 

Posted 10:20 AM by Sean
The Times is seemingly asleep at the switch on the Bengie Molina situation.

Thursday:

"I'm here to play every day," said Bengie, on course to return for this weekend's series in Texas. "I don't care how good Jose is feeling. If they don't think I can play every day, that's a decision they have to make."

Saturday:

Angel catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined by a slight strain of his left hamstring, will attempt to run the bases aggressively before tonight's game. If he gets through the workout with no setbacks, he could start Sunday against the Rangers.

Yesterday:

Bengie Molina, sidelined by a slight strain of his left hamstring, ran vigorously in the outfield before Saturday night's game, and if the Angel catcher is able to run the bases aggressively today, he will probably make his 2004 debut Monday night against the Rangers.

And today:

Catcher Bengie Molina, sidelined by a strain of his left hamstring, ran in the outfield again. Scioscia said Molina would try to run the bases aggressively tonight, and if he passes that test, he could play Tuesday night at home.

It doesn't bother me so much that the Angels keep pushing Molina's return date back. What bugs me is that the Times hasn't even bothered to comment on the situation, or explain why what they've reported hasn't resulted in the expected outcome. Why even waste the ink at this point? How about "Bengie Molina may or may not run the bases aggressively at some point, and will be back when he's back, okay?" Mike DiGiovanna could program it in as a macro, just like I've got one that spits out "threw 2.2 ineffective innings in which he surrendered nine hits and seven earned runs, leading to renewed speculation that the Angels are keeping him in the rotation because of certain incriminating Polaroids in his possession" whenever I type the words "Ramon Ortiz."

Look homeward, Angels 

Posted 4:52 PM by Sean
Yesterday's disastrous Ortiz/Sele implosion put me - and every other Angels fan, I'm sure - in a contract-eatin' frame of mind. I doubt Arte Moreno feels the same way, but it does raise the slightly more cheery prospect of getting out from under those two contracts at the end of the year. Add to that the fact that the Halos won't be paying Kevin Appier anymore either, and we get a total of $22.92 million chopped off the books going into 2005.

Of course, there's also the matter of Garret Anderson's contract extension to be taken into consideration. Moreno continues to say that getting The Tustin Rhino back is a priority, and my best guess is that we'll be looking at a contract in the $12-$13 million range there. Beyond that, Troy Glaus, David Eckstein, Bengie Molina, Troy Percival, and Jarrod Washburn will all require stick-or-bail decisions. But it's going to feel so damn good to know the Angels aren't writing checks anymore to that particular troika of pitchers.

Where have you gone, Hilly Hathaway? 

Posted 12:28 PM by Sean
I don't get it. The Angels lived up to their part of the bargain, kindly surrendering twelve runs to the Rangers. So why this knife in the back, this inexplicable failure on the part of the Texas ballclub to fork over their seventeen runs in return? What, are they yella? Chicken? Hey, Rangers: buck-buck-buck-AWK!

Seriously, that just sucked. From my perch in the second deck, I had no way of seeing how well Ortiz was pitching, but the results seem to speak for themselves, even taking into account the fact that the Rangers are a very good hitting team: 2.2 innings pitched, 9 hits, 7 earned runs. Sele made his first appearance from the bullpen, and was only a marginal improvement: 3.1 IP, 8 hits, 5 earned runs, and he allowed two inherited runners to score. Even the hitting was disappointing - after a promising beginning, they were more or less shut down by R.A. Dickey, and Tim Salmon seems to be mired in the April funk to end all April funks. Unlike Erstad, who at least has hit the ball hard occasionally, Salmon just isn't making good contact. The Angels have suffered through this before, of course, but if he can't hit it here, he can't hit it anywhere, so to speak.

Meh. Whatever. We'll hope for an upgrade tonight, when John Lackey seeks to redeem the bottom part of the rotation against Kenny Rogers.

In which he says "Dickey," provoking fond memories of Beavis 

Posted 10:55 AM by Sean
I'm off in a few minutes to watch Ramon Ortiz and R.A. Dickey square off. The Angels were escaped Seattle with a sweep yesterday, despite Freddie Garcia bringing his A+ game - credit goes to Kelvim Escobar, who had rocky patches but, impressively, recovered from each one without going into the full-on death spiral. Nice to see Scot Shields bounce back, too.

The over-under on Kennedy and Erstad swapping spots in the batting order is currently April 29.

Tune in later for my impressions of the Angels' upcoming 17-12 win over the Rangers.

What do you do with an elephant with three balls? 

Posted 12:59 PM by Sean
You walk him, and pitch to the rhino.

Unfortunately for Joel Piniero, it that strategy isn't so effective if the rhino is also capable of knocking the ball into downtown Tacoma.

The hitting looked pretty damn good last night - even more impressive than during the opener. They seemed to be a bit more patient at the plate, at least against Piniero, but the results were the same. David Eckstein continued his excellent leadoff work - he's 5 for 11 in these past two games, and, more significantly, 28 for 75 since the start of Spring Training and 18 for 44 since March 21. He's always been manic, but this year he seems...grittier, somehow. More mature in his determination. While it's always absurd to make predictions this early in the year, he's worth keeping an eye on with respect to "Comback Player of the Year" honors.

Unfortunately, Darin Erstad isn't doing too much to vindicate the people who said he'd have a monster season this year. Again, it's way too early to judge, but...two for 11? With four strikeouts? Jeezum crow. Ersty won't be able to hide in the two-spot, either - it'll become apparenent pretty quickly that having an unproductive out machine in between Eckstein and the boppers is pretty much like putting a speedbump in at the Daytona 500.

Washburn was unimpressive, and not just in his 31-pitch fourth inning. He pitched behind in the count a lot, and ended up throwing a lot of get-me-over stuff that got hit on the screws. He didn't walk anyone, but there are a lot of major league hitters who can put wood on a 91 mph fastball over the heart of the plate on a 2-1 count. He did strike out six, but he also surrendered a home run - not so nice to see, considering he led the league in that last year.

And, for the second straight game, there were middle-relief problems. The man that Rob at 6-4-2 calls "Osama Ben Weber" (in reference to his absurdly grown-out goatee) looked shaky, giving up an instant double to Dangerous Dan Wilson and allowing runs from both an inherited runner and one he grew all by himself. He did settle down to pitch a nice seventh, and the Rodriguez-Percival tandem was flawless in the eighth and ninth, but the Mariners managed to claw their way back from 8-0 to 9-7, illuminating the fact that the Angels are really skating on thin ice until Brendan Donnelly's return.

On that front, incidentally, Donnelly's progress is steady. He remains in Arizona, recuperating from his various surgeries, and was re-examined at Scottsdale Memorial Hospital on Tuesday, at which time the packing in his nose was changed. He's not been released to start any baseball-related activity, but is scheduled to be re-examined on the 13th.

Today, the Angels have a getaway game scheduled for 1:35 Pacific Time. We'll get our first look at Kelvim Escobar in an Angels uniform, and Kelvim will settle into a season in which he doesn't have to pitch half his games at SkyDome. Escobar's home/road splits last year were eyebrow-raising: a 5.64 ERA in 95.2 innings pitched at home, and a 2.76 ERA in 84.2 innings pitched on the road. At one point last year, he won six straight road decisions, and he gave up four times as many home runs in Toronto as he did while on the road (12 to 3). Whether that's just a weird coincidence or has some deeper meaning, I suppose we'll know after this season. In any event, he's pretty much owned the top of the Mariners' lineup in his career - Ichiro, Randy Winn, and Bret Boone are a combined 9 for 51 against him, lifetime - but he does have trouble with Edgar Martinez (13 for 25) and the aforementioned Dangerous Dan (7 for 17).

For the Mariners, Freddie Garcia will try to prevent what would be the first Angels sweep in Seattle since April of 1991. Garcia's a workhorse - think Bartolo Colon, with Jarrod Washburn's fastball velocity - but over the past couple of years he's gone from being an ace-in-waiting to a middle-rotation guy as hitters figured out that he has no real "out" pitch. He's got several decent pitches, but if you wait on the one you want, you're likely to get it sooner or later. Tim Salmon, who has just one hit so far and is probably feeling left out, will be happy to see him; Salmon is 12 for 35 lifetime against Garcia. Eckstein and Kennedy are both around .300 for their careers against him, while Troy Glaus and Garret "The Scarlet Rhino" Anderson will bring .162 and .220 averages to the plate. We may also see Josh Paul's Angels debut this afternoon, either as the starting catcher or as a pinch-hitter - Paul is 3 for 6 lifetime against Garcia.

In which the words "Molina" and "stolen base" are used unironically 

Posted 4:18 PM by Sean
The line on Bengie Molina is that he maybe, kinda, sorta is expected to be in the lineup this weekend. Hey, if Jose can keep hitting the way he has been - he was 9 for 17 with four doubles and two home runs in the spring - Bengie can take his time. Big brother sure seemed to be yukking it up last night when Jose took a foul ball in the grapes, but I think Jose gets the last laugh on that one: "Hey, Bengie, did you see when I stole that base? Did you even know you're allowed to do that?"

Take and read, take and read... 

Posted 2:38 PM by Sean
I'm unforgiveably behind the times on this one, but the most recent Angels blogs to hit the scene are Chronicles of the Lads and League of Angels, both of which have been doing fine work for a little while now. We're still a couple shy of a full lineup, but it's awesome to see this particular patch of the blogosphere blossom the way it has in the last few months.

Thank you sir, may I have another! 

Posted 1:49 PM by Sean
Well, that certainly didn't suck.

There's not a whole lot of in-depth discussion to do here, in part because it was just the first game of the season, and I'm resisting the temptation to read too much into it, and in part because most discussion of strategy became moot sometime around the point at which the Troyminator parked his second dinger. A few items of interest, though:

* Man, the Angels were aggressive at the plate. This isn't a team that's built around the base on balls, but it almost seemed like they thought that taking four wide would give them leprosy. It's hard to argue with the result - 10 runs on 12 hits, and the pitch Glaus whacked into center for that second homer did come on a 3-0 count - but, on the other hand, Jose Guillen looked like he was pressing a little.

* Glaus is back. I should know better than to say such a thing, but getting healthy and not having to deal with contact lenses looks like it's made a tremendous difference. In this lineup, there are about six different guys who could hit two home runs on any given night, but I strongly suspect that Glaus doing so on opening day will turn out to be more emblematic than, say, Jose Guillen getting the first dinger of the year, or Vlad Guerrero the first walk.

* The Angels took one walk during Moyer's 5.2 innings pitched, the aforementioned free pass to Guerrero. Moyer's pretty stingy - about 1 walk per 3.1 IP. After Moyer's departure, they continued to go after pitches, and finished the game with a grand total of two bases on balls. Then again, why walk when you can hit?

* Colon, meanwhile, issued no walks, a tremendous sign, while maintaining a 95-97 mph velocity on his fastball and using breaking pitches on just about any count. I thought he looked a little rocky in the second, but settled down nicely after that. A lot of people say that Colon just gets stronger the deeper he gets into the game, and that was certainly in evidence last night. His by-inning pitch count: 18, 31, 14, 16, 8, 13.

* I'm sure Scioscia's not exactly doing the Myposian Dance of Joy about having to use Frankie Rodriguez last night. I expected him to keep Shields in for the last three innings of work (thus earning Shields one of those rare laugher saves). Can't blame him for pulling Shields, though, nor for pulling Gregg - both looked like they were having command problems. Both Shields and Rodriguez are probably burned for tonight, but Gregg only pitched to two hitters and is probably available. We should see the 2004 debut of Sele or Weber - or both - tonight.

Set Triviaizers on stun 

Posted 1:47 PM by Sean
A few random notes while waiting for 4:05 CDT...

The Angels have had a few memorable moments opening past seasons in Seattle. Most recently, they beat the Mariners 3-2 on opening day, 1991. On opening day '86, Bobby Grich homered on the first pitch of the game. On opening day '77, Frank Tanana threw a complete game shutout (followed by another complete game shutout by Nolan Ryan on the next night).

Tonight's lineup is a tribute to the virtues of constancy: Tim Salmon will make his 12th consecutive opening day start, a new Angels record; Garret Anderson makes his ninth straight; Troy Glaus will make his sixth straight, which ties him with Doug DeCinces for the Angels' third-base record. And, while Bengie Molina's streak will apparently end at five straight (well short of Buck Rodgers's eight straight from 1962-1968), Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein will become the first keystone combination to make three consecutive opening day starts since Bobby Knoop and Jim Fregosi, who made six straight between 1964 and 1969.

This will be Bartolo Colon's fourth opening day start, the most recent being the 6-0 hex he put on the Angels on opening day 2002. I lost $20 on that game while watching it from the sportsbook room in the Luxor Hotel in Las Vegas (and then made it back again betting the under on the women's NCAA basketball championship, of all things). Colon has a 3.43 ERA in those three other starts, and a 4.19 lifetime ERA in April. He has a hard time with Ichiro (who doesn't?), who's 7 for 18 (.389) against him lifetime. Edgar Martinez also hits him well (12 for 32, .375), and Quentin McCracken - really! - seems to have his number too (7 for 12, .583). On the flip side, Colon is a mystery to Brett Boone (3 for 17, .176), Raul Ibanez (4 for 19, .211), and John Olerud (3 for 21, .143).

As far as Jamie Moyer is concerned, Garret Anderson (26 for 70, .371) and Troy Glaus (11 for 36, .306) seem to have had the most success against him, whereas Tim Salmon (17 for 79, .215), Darin Erstad (10 for 50, .200), and Adam Kennedy (3 for 16, .188) will all be hoping the 41-year-old has lost a little something.

Let the games begin!

Good news, everyone! 

Posted 11:55 AM by Sean
Injury update: Jose Guillen and Mike Scioscia say that Guillen will start today's game. Bengie Molina is still expected to sit out, with Jose Molina getting the start at catcher.

Overture, light the lights... 

Posted 3:04 PM by Sean
The Angels pretty much whomped the tar out of the Dodgers over the weekend, sweeping the Freeway Series and finishing their preseason with a 19-13-1 record (built on a strong start and a strong finish, with a kind of squishy middle). Rolling into tomorrow's opener against the Mariners, the Angels look like a team that's ready to pound out runs by the busful, while not worrying too much about the starting pitching. Unfortunately, it looks like both Jose Guillen and Bengie Molina will miss the opener, though neither is expected to be put on the DL.

Of the two, I'm more worried about Molina. His hamstrings seem to have been bothering him pretty regularly this spring, and it's not like you get many opportunities to rest them when you're catching full-time. Guillen's bone bruise will heal, but the Angels will have to worry about Molly's hamstrings for a while.

So now that Spring Training is officially done, let's take a quick look at what the starting pitching and lineup has looked like:

In the rotation:
Bartolo Colon - 5.16 ERA, 22.2 IP, 31 H, 13 ER, 20 K, 8 BB, 2 HR
Jarrod Washburn - 2.33 ERA, 19.1 IP, 18 H, 5 ER, 14 K, 6 BB, 0 HR
Kelvim Escobar - 4.01 ERA, 24.2 IP, 27 H, 11 ER, 24 K, 8 BB, 3 HR
Ramon Ortiz - 6.66 ERA, 24.1 IP, 37 H, 18 ER, 12 K, 8 BB, 4 HR
John Lackey - 9.00 ERA, 23 IP, 32 H, 23 ER, 15 K, 9 BB, 7 HR

Coming into spring training, the questions about the starting rotation - aside from who would get in - were "what kind of job is Kelvim Escobar going to do?" and "can at least one or two of the guys who had bad years in 2003 rebound?" On both of those fronts, the Angels seem to have at least a qualified positive response. Washburn closed out his spring training with a string of excellent outings, and seems to be benefiting from having Bartolo Colon around to take the "staff ace" pressure off of him. Escobar has had both good and bad outings, but the pendulum seems to be settling on the sweet side of the meridian, at least for now, and that K/IP ratio is a pleasant surprise.

Heading into the season, the questions have shifted to the back end of the rotation. There's no doubt that both Ortiz and Lackey are capable of performing well, but neither has given me much cause for optimism so far. Ortiz was awarded a spot in the rotation over Aaron Sele for reasons known only to God and Mike Scioscia, while John Lackey is pitching like he just bought stock in a company that manufactures home run fireworks. With Aaron Sele and Scot Shields waiting in the pen, the Angels can afford to have either or both pitchers crash and burn; the question is, how long of a leash will Scioscia give them?

In the lineup:
David Eckstein - .359 BA (23 for 64), 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, .531 SLG
Darin Erstad - .310 BA (22 for 71), 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, .521 SLG
Vlad Guerrero - .328 BA (19 for 58), 5 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, .603 SLG
Garret Anderson - .278 BA (10 for 36), 4 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, .556 SLG
Troy Glaus - .344 BA (21 for 61), 4 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, .738 SLG
Jose Guillen - .360 BA (18 for 50), 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, .760 SLG
Tim Salmon - .306 BA (19 for 62), 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, .484 SLG
Bengie Molina - .368 BA (7 for 19), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, .474 SLG
Adam Kennedy - .226 BA (14 for 62), 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, .226 SLG

Whoa. Not that Spring Training means anything, you understand, but...whoa.

The top of the order is looking good. David Eckstein, in particular, has had a very solid spring and is looking pretty determined to get back to setting the table for the rest of the lineup. Erstad is still a question mark; his numbers have been inflated by a recent string of good games, and it remains to be seen whether his move to first base will, as some say, allow him to play injury-free and return to the level of offensive production he reached in 2000.

The three through seven slots are just scary at this point. Guerrero has had a spring entirely consistent with expectations, and doesn't seem to be suffering from any ill effects after being traded from a doormat to a contender. Anderson has had a short spring, but has had enough at-bats that he shouldn't be seriously hampered by it. Troy Glaus, fresh off shoulder rehab and laser eye surgery, has been killing the ball. Jose Guillen has fulfilled the optimists' best guesses. And Tim Salmon...well, we'll see about him. His adjustment will be mental; it's a hard thing to go from playing defense to DH'ing full-time; it's pretty much a public sign that he's nearing retirement. And hitting in the seven slot will be different, too - but I'd guess that he'll have an opportunity to be a part of a lot of big innings this year, which is fun for anybody.

Down at the bottom of the order, Molina is something of a question mark in terms of his health, which is a shame. His 2003 was one of the Angels' few bright spots, and the limited indications on him available this spring seemed to be that he wasn't regressing offensively. If he's healthy, he has good power to the gaps, and, despite being arguably the slowest man in professional baseball, will hit a bunch of doubles. If he's hurt, however, both Jose Molina and Josh Paul have had good springs, and should be able to fill in for him, at least temporarily.

Adam Kennedy, however, is the team's biggest offensive question mark at this point. After a brilliant 2002, in which he hit .312 from the nine spot and served as a kind of top-of-the-order guy at the bottom of the order, he lost over 40 points of average and 50 points of OPS in 2003. His 2003 numbers, unfortunately, appear to be the ones that are in line with his lifetime averages. At age 28, he's entering what statistically should be his most productive period. 2003-type numbers wouldn't be terrible for a guy batting ninth, but one can't help but recall the positive impact he was in 2002. The Angels will have Chone Figgins on the bench as a potential backup for Kennedy, though Figgins is also expected to play some innings in center field. Figgins has had a decent spring (.293, 4 2B, 5 SB), but has yet to prove that he can hit major league pitching for any extended period of time.

All in all, it's been a good spring for the Angels. None of their four premier free agents has been a bust, and we've seen signs from Washburn, Erstad, and Glaus that their 2003 performances are well behind them. The Angels are something of a trendy pick to win the West, and at this point I'd have to say that they're looking pretty competitive.

Honors unearned, praise unwon 

Posted 7:41 PM by Sean
The Angels are second in ESPN's first power rankings of the season. Say it with me: woo.

Won't get fooled again 

Posted 4:22 PM by Sean
You know, it sure seems like the Angels' offense is hitting on all cylinders these days. Seems like every time I look at a box score, I'm seeing multiple hits from multiple guys and big, fat, crooked numbers in the runs columns. Today's no exception: a quick glance at the scoreboard shows the Angels with a 6-4 lead over Milwaukee in the bottom of the eighth.

Ah, Milwaukee.

The problem is, the Angels have been playing an awful lot of Milwaukees lately, or at least going up against pitchers who wouldn't be out of place pitching there. Since the end of split-squad games, they've faced sixteen starting pitchers:

3/15 - S. Hitchcock, Padres. 4 IP, 5 H, 1 ER
3/16 - E. Loaiza, White Sox. 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER
3/17 - J. Jennings, Rockies. 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER
3/18 - C. Zambrano, Cubs. 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER
3/19 - M. Redman, A's. 4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER
3/20 - R. Jensen, Giants. 3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER
3/21 - C. George, Royals. 4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER
3/23 - M. Kinney, Brewers. 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER
3/24 - S. Mitre, Cubs. 2.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER
3/25 - J. Affeldt, Royals. 5 IP, 11 H, 5 ER
3/26 - B. Lawrence, Padres. 5.2 IP, 13 H, 7 ER
3/27 - B. Tomko, Giants. 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
3/28 - K. Rueter, Giants. 5.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER
3/29 - M. Clement, Cubs. 5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER
3/30 - G. Rusch, Rangers. 1.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER
3/31 - D. Stark, Rockies. 6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER

In total, that's 71.2 IP, 106 H, and 57 ER, for 1.48 hits per inning and 7.16 ER/9. But, looking at those sixteen pitchers, we see the following:

Exactly five of them - Clement, Affeldt, Redman, Zambrano, and Loaiza - had ERA's that were better than the league average in 2003. Against those five, the Angels scored 10 earned runs on 31 hits in 24 innings - a rate of 1.29 hits per inning and 3.76 ER/9. Last year, they had a composite ERA of 3.47. So against the better pitchers they've faced, the offense has produced at a rate that's slightly less than a third of a run per nine innings higher than the average performance against those pitchers last year.

Let's be fair, though, and include those pitchers who were within 10% of their league's average ERA in 2003. Those guys were Kirk Rueter, at 95%, Brian Lawrence, at 94%, Jason Jennings, at 93%, and Sterling Hitchcock, at 91%. Adding them into the mix along with the previous five, we come up with a total of 43.1 IP, 61 hits, and 23 earned runs, for a rate of 1.41 hits per inning and a 4.78 ER/9. That's pretty good, of course - the average ERA in the National League in 2003 was 4.28, and the average in the AL was 4.53. If the Angels can hit at that clip against the guys who are in the 45th percentile or better during the season, they'll be doing fine. But it's instructive to re-visit the lines of the guys who remain from that list of sixteen:

3/20 - R. Jensen, Giants. 3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER
3/21 - C. George, Royals. 4 IP, 0 H, 0 ER
3/23 - M. Kinney, Brewers. 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER
3/24 - S. Mitre, Cubs. 2.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER
3/27 - B. Tomko, Giants. 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
3/30 - G. Rusch, Rangers. 1.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER
3/31 - D. Stark, Rockies. 6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER

That's one guy who baffled them, one guy who held his own, and five guys who just got their asses handed to them.

So what does this all mean? Well, clearly the Angels' gaudy offensive numbers of late have come as a result of facing some fairly crappy pitching. But even against the good pitchers, they've performed well. Hopefully, what this means is that they'll contend with the aces and destroy the lesser lights. Since I've always contended that one of the hallmarks of their 99-win season in 2002 was their ability to do just that - battle the good teams, dispatch the bad ones - this should be a good omen.

It also, however, drives home my point from the other day. The Angels cannot afford to believe that their offense will save them from substandard pitching; their advantage at the plate against decent pitchers is not enough to offset shaky starts at the bottom of the rotation. Or, at least, it's not enough to offet them regularly enough to win the 95+ games they'll need to make the playoffs.

POSTSCRIPT: As I wrote this, the Angels surrendered five runs in the top of the ninth inning, and lost 9-6.