Thanks, but no thanks 

Posted 1:46 PM by Sean
All things considered, I'm starting Labor Day weekend early. Next post Tuesday, unless something dramatic happens.

So Long, and Thanks for All of It, Fish 

Posted 10:26 AM by Sean
The ESPN folks mentioned during last night's broadcast that Tim Salmon had decided to have surgery on his left shoulder and left knee. Today's Times reports that Salmon will likely miss 2005, his last year under contract to the Angels. More to come on this, but for right now, I just want to say thanks to a guy who, for the last eleven years, has defined the Angels more than any other player. He was there for the bad times, and was an integral part of the 2002 championship run. If this is, in fact, the end of Salmon's career, the game is losing one hell of a classy ballplayer.

Everybody Gets Famous 

Posted 9:03 AM by Sean
Maya, Rob, Richard and I (and a couple of bloggers who write about some other team) are quoted in this Jim Alexander column in the Riverside Press-Enterprise today.

Grit Your Teeth and Hold On 

Posted 3:36 PM by Sean
While I'm at it: the A's, currently three games in front of the Angels, have just completed an incredibly successful month. In addition to going 20-8, they scored 150 runs - the most they've scored in any month of 2004 - and allowed just 107 - the fewest they've allowed in any month of 2004.

Oakland has always had pitching. This year, however, they've actually had some pretty solid offensive production. With the exception of Jermaine Dye (and Bobby Crosby, because he's a rookie), every one of the hitters normally in their lineup have been better than their career averages:

Kotsay:
career - .284/.341/.422
2004 - .305/.361/.448

Scutaro:
career - .267/.304/.389
2004 - .281/.305/.399

Chavez:
career - .277/.353/.508
2004 - .282/.402/.551

Hatteberg
career - .272/.362/.418
2004 - .307/.390/.458

Durazo
career - .284/.385/.501
2004 - .325/.392/.543

Byrnes
career - .273/.335/.468
2004 - .289/.347/.486

Miller
career - .266/.333/.424
2004 - .287/.352/.434

Dye
career - .271/.333/.461
2004 - .259/.323/.449

That's simply amazing. Again excepting Dye, every one of these guys is posting better numbers in all three categories. And check THIS out:

Scutaro:
career - .267/.304/.389
2004 - .281/.305/.399
August - .303/.321/.474

Chavez:
career - .277/.353/.508
2004 - .282/.402/.551
August - .308/.402/.635

Hatteberg
career - .272/.362/.418
2004 - .307/.390/.458
August - .352/.444/.486

Durazo
career - .284/.385/.501
2004 - .325/.392/.543
August - .355/.408/.600

Byrnes
career - .273/.335/.468
2004 - .289/.347/.486
August - .311/.344/.437

So where are the sabrmetricians out there? I realize that most of those guys (except Hatteberg and Miller) are in their late 20's, and it's not much of a surprise that any of them, individually, could post numbers like that. But come on - all of them?

It's certainly possible that Oakland's offensive surge will continue unabated through September. Stranger things have happened. But you know, I think I remember reading something about teams like this tending to regre...regriss...ah, yes - regress to the mean. It's just kind of funny that I haven't heard anything about it lately.

This race ain't over by a long shot.

Turning the Page 

Posted 2:08 PM by Sean
All right, well, dropping the first game of a big series is never fun. And the Angels got something of a tough draw, facing Schilling right off the bat (which is not to minimize the fact that Lackey was terrible). Realistically, though, if the Angels can get to Arroyo tonight, they still have a chance of winning this series - they've always been good against Lowe, who pitches on Thursday.

Historically, September has not been good to the Angels. But they turned that around in 2002, and they can do it again.

In other news, keep an eye on the race for the N.L. wildcard. After being written off a couple of weeks ago, both Florida (3 games back) and Houston (2.5 games back) are in the mix, making for a five-team scramble in the last month. Should be pretty entertaining.

Callups 

Posted 11:04 AM by Sean
The Times reports that the first Angels callups are Andres Galarraga, Shane Halter, and Casey Kotchman.

Random Notes 

Posted 9:05 AM by Sean
Here's an interesting and generally accurate history of the Angels in the Disney years from savedisney.com. Worth a read, for those of you who want to relive it.

(Update: both Chronicles and 6-4-2 have reasoned critiques of the article that are definitely worth reading)

Also, apropos of nothing: the Kansas City Royals have been eliminated from wild-card contention. Because of head-to-head matchups, they can no longer catch all of the teams ahead of them (no link; I had some time to kill and figured it out myself). This means that the Royals are free to focus on the division race, where they are about two days from being mathematically eliminated.

AK=ALPOTW 

Posted 4:50 PM by Sean
Adam Kennedy has been named A.L. Player of the Week for the week ending August 29 (the day before yesterday's walk-off shot). During that period, he hit .619/.640/.952 in six games.

Blah blah blah trade me blah blah blah no respect blah blah blah... 

Posted 10:04 AM by Sean
Ramon Ortiz is once again unhappy with being demoted to the bullpen, a move the Angels are making to accommodate Jarrod Washburn's return (scheduled for Saturday). "I don't understand," Ortiz is reported as saying, "I do everything. I throw the ball very well. They don't respect me. I don't want to stay here."

Eh. Ortiz's latest stint as a starter, which has lasted just about a month now, would have to be classified as a qualified success. During that time, he made seven starts, going 2-2. He surrendered 25 earned runs in 46.1 innings pitched, a 4.85 ERA. He struck out 20, walked 10, and surrendered 9 home runs. Of those seven starts, he had one excellent performance (eight innings of shut-out ball against the Yankees), three I'd consider good (two against the Mariners, one against the Royals), and three that were rotten (against the Twins, Tigers, and Royals, that last one being the 21-6 game in which Ortiz appeared to lose his concentration after being staked to a 10-run lead; if you want to be generous, you could call that a so-so start). Ortiz did pitch well enough to keep the Angels in most of the games he started, but, as always, a lack of consistency bedeviled him.

Sele, meanwhile, has consistency but no potential. Over his last seven starts, he's gone 3-1, giving up 17 earned runs in 37.2 innings pitched, a 4.11 ERA, striking out 10, walking 16, and allowing 5 home runs. He's had one very good outing (Detroit), three I'd call pretty decent (Seattle, Minnesota twice), two stinkburgers (Seattle and Baltimore), and one incomplete (New York, in which he left the game after giving up one run in three innings because of a lengthy rain delay).

The advantage Sele has over Ortiz is that, while he's not going to dominate anyone, he will usually get the game to the bullpen before it gets completely out of hand. Since the 'pen is the best in the league, the Angels would rather be able to depend on their fifth starter to get the game to the sixth inning or so, rather than take the chance that Ortiz will blow up as often as he dominates. There's no reason to save the bullpen when your fifth starter goes - that's what Colon is for. Nor does Ortiz's argument that, in the past, he's won 15 or 16 games a year avail him; aside from the usual problems with measuring a starter by his wins, this year Sele has 8 wins in 19 starts, while Ortiz has 4 wins in 14 starts. Sele's ERA as a starter is 4.27; Ortiz's is 5.47.

That said, it's being reported that there will be five more starts for the fifth spot in the rotation. Looking at the schedule, it would appear that those five starts will be:

9/1 - at Boston
9/11 - vs. Chicago
9/16 - @ Seattle
9/21 - vs. Seattle
9/? - @ Texas (the exact date is sketchy, but it will very likely be in this series if a playoff spot is still not clinched)

Adjusting for the fact that Seattle is in there twice, Ortiz's 2004 ERA against those opponents is 5.50 in 52.1 innings, while Sele's is 5.40 in 43.2 innings (Sele has not pitched against Boston this year).

Update: I also buy Richard's argument that Ortiz will contribute more in the bullpen than Sele would. With Gregg looking shaky, Ortiz should prove an effective middle- to long-relief guy, allowing Shields to step into more of a set-up role and giving Gregg the mop-up/"stupid situation" relief job that Matt Hensley had before being sent back to Salt Lake.

Just slightly off-topic 

Posted 4:36 PM by Sean
Major props to Kellie Wilkerson, my wife's cousin, who was named player of the game after the New York/New Jersey Juggernaut's 10-1 victory over the New England Riptide in the inaugural championship game of the National Pro Fastpitch softball league. Kellie went two-for-three with a three-run homer. She was also one of only two hitters to bat over .300 during the season, posting a .333/.438/.407 line.

The league currently has teams in the Houston, New York, Boston, Sacramento, Akron, and Tucson areas. If you live in one of those cities, check it out when next season comes around.

It's hard to type with your jaw on the floor 

Posted 3:15 PM by Sean
Troy Glaus is DHing today. For the Angels.

At-bat #1: Bottom of the second, Anderson on first, two outs - Glaus lines to left, the ball hanging up just long enough to be caught on the run. Good contact. Salmon is reported as being sent to the DL.

At-bat #2: Bottom of the fourth, nobody on, one out - Glaus grounds to third after taking two strikes. Scioscia has been ejected for arguing a tag at second; he may or may not have been right - impossible to tell from the replays.

At-bat #3: Bottom of the sixth, Guillen on second, two outs - Glaus is intentionally walked to set up the lefty-lefty matchup against Adam Kennedy. Adam Kennedy hits lefties about as effectively as Jackie Kennedy, and pops up to end the inning.

At-bat #4: Bottom of the ninth, tie game, nobody on, one out - Glaus is pitched around and walks. The Twins announcers pronounce this move wise, since, in their words, Glaus is the only Angels hitter besides Guerrero and Guillen who is a threat to hit a home run. This is despite the fact that Adam Kennedy, hitting behind Glaus, hit three home runs against the Twins in game five of the 2002 ALCS. Juan Rincon, a right hander, throws a 3-2 breaking ball and, sure enough, Kennedy hits a walk-off two-run shot to right-center field. Glaus scores the winning run.