Bat Guerrero Fourth! 

Posted 10:13 AM by Sean
There's a remarkably insight-free preview of the 2005 Angels at Scout.com today. I mention it simply because it's the umpteenth time I've seen a projected lineup that puts Guerrero in the wrong damn place in the order:

1. Figgins/Kennedy
2. Erstad
3. Guerrero
4. Anderson
5. Finley
6. Cabrera
7. McPherson
8. Molina
9. Quinlan

To be fair, this is likely an approximation of the lineup that will be used. Some juggling could happen, of course - Cabrera might be dropped down, McPherson, Molina, or Quinlan could move up - but the top five are pretty much a given, at least to start.

But here's the thing: why is Guerrero batting third? Ordinarily, the theory is that you put your best hitter in the three-spot, and protect him with your second-best hitter in the four spot so that he sees better pitches. The problem is that Guerrero is such a notorious free-swinger that he's going to see bad pitches anyway, so there's no point at all in trying to protect him in the lineup. In fact, his walk rate was actually higher in the 3-spot last year (41/489) than it was in the 4-spot (11/175). So instead, I'd argue that it would be worth trying to use Guerrero to protect Anderson, who would almost certainly benefit, since he's much more selective at the plate. This also puts more potential runners on base for Guerrero to drive in.

I see two potential objections:

1. If Figgins, Erstad, and Anderson go out in order, Guerrero leads off the second inning. Guerrero leading off an inning is bad, because there's no chance for him to drive in runs. Okay, but it's even worse if he's hitting third, because if we're assuming that Figgins and Erstad are out, that means Guerrero has no chance to drive in anyone (except himself), and there's a strong possibility a base hit will be wasted before he can be driven in. If he leads off the second, he has an excellent chance to start a rally.

2. Dropping Guerrero a spot in the lineup decreases his plate appearances. Possibly true; I remember reading someone (maybe King Kaufman) right before the 2002 World Series suggesting that Barry Bonds should bat leadoff to maximize his at-bats. Last year, Angels #3 hitters had 714 AB+BBs, while the #4 hitters had 703. But that strikes me as an awfully small gap; even the slightest edge in terms of giving Anderson more pitches to hit or having more base runners on when Guerrero is at the plate would be enough to offset.

I think it's worth a shot, anyway.

Guerrero ready to rock 

Posted 10:03 AM by Sean
Sounds like The Monster is all healed up from his sprained thumb. I had no idea his winter ball stint lasted all of four games.

Meanwhile, memo to Ross Newhan: you're retired, dawg. I understand the temptation to keep your hand in, to be an elder statesman. But this cranky-wisdom-from-on-high bit comes off more like Larry King or Andy Rooney, and you're better than that.

AK "ahead of schedule" 

Posted 10:08 AM by Sean
The latest Angels Mailbag puts Adam Kennedy's return to active duty with the Angels possibly as early as late May:

Mike Scioscia told me this week that Adam is progressing very well from his reconstructive knee surgery and would be joining the position players when they report to Spring Training next week. Scioscia said Kennedy will be resuming defensive drills relatively soon, although he still has a long road ahead of him as far as getting back into baseball shape. It's still looking like late May at the earliest for seeing Adam in a Major League game.

The L.A. Times, meanwhile, says early June. They also say (same article) negotiations with Jered Weaver are "heating up," which marks approximately the 7,000th time I've heard that in the last month or so. Either the discussions are now the white-hot temperature of a burning kiln thrown into the center of the Sun, or they're following the Antioch College rules of dating.

How's this for weird? 

Posted 5:14 PM by Sean
Sports Illustrated's Jacob Luft ranks the Angels' rotation as fifth-best in the AL, and best in the AL West. Man, I know Hudson and Mulder are gone, but it's still jarring to see that. In a good way, of course.

The purpose of this post is to make the Halo Herald happy 

Posted 1:28 PM by Sean
Herewith my hopes and fears for the 2005 Angels lineup, entirely in the form of Futurama quotes:

Chone Figgins, 2B - "I'll be whatever I wanna do."

Darin Erstad, 1B - "This show's been going downhill since season three."

Garret Anderson, LF - "What's that you're hacking off? Is it my torso? It is! My precious torso!"

Vlad Guerrero, RF - "Stop! Stop! If you interrupt the mating dance the male will become enraged and maul us with his fearsome gonad!"

Steve Finley, CF - "There were plenty of times in my century when I was going to give up, but I never did. Never. Hey, are you even listening to me? Oh, I give up."

Jeff DaVanon, DH - "Crazy theories one, regular theories a billion."

Dallas McPherson, 3B - "I can't wait until I'm old enough to feel ways about stuff."

Bengie Molina, C - "That's no flying saucer! That's my ass!"

Orlando Cabrera, SS - "Well, at least here you'll be treated with dignity. Now strip down and get on the probulator."

8 days to spring training... 

Posted 8:53 AM by Sean
Here we have an article profiling Angels minor-leaguer Tommy Murphy, who will likely start the season at Triple-A as one of the system's few outfield prospects. This comes to us courtesy of heraldtribune.com, which bills itself as "Southwest Florida's Information Leader," a title somewhere in the vicinity of "Nicest Lacrosse Uniforms in Montana."

Tommy, a converted shortstop, apparently has not figured out why an organization that has middle infield prospects falling out of its rectal cavity would make him into an outfielder:

A shortstop throughout high school, college and his first four years in the pros, the Angels switched Murphy to the outfield, specifically center field, reportedly to take advantage of his speed.

"I never actually got a full-fledged reason," said Murphy, who has 110 stolen bases to go along with a .247 average, 27 homers and 203 RBI in 568 minor league games. "I had mixed feelings at the time, but I'm happy with it."

Come to think of it, the 2007 Angels could conceivably feature Murphy (OF), Erick Aybar (3B, with McPherson at 1B), Brandon Wood (SS), Alberto Callaspo (2B), and Orlando Cabrera (DH). How's a five-shortstop lineup grab you?

The Monster in Right Field 

Posted 1:30 PM by Sean
Vlad Guerrero has the best outfield arm in the majors, sez Eric Neel.